77 years of data show which precursor awards matter and which ones you can ignore. Here's the evidence-based approach to Oscar predictions.
→ Best Director
The single most reliable Oscar predictor in existence
77 years of data
Action: When DGA announces, expect 20-50% odds shifts within hours
→ Best Picture
Uses the same voting system as the Academy
Since 2009 (preferential ballot)
Action: PGA winner usually sees 15-30% probability boost same day
→ Supporting Actor
Last 8 SAG winners took the Oscar
Recent years
Action: SAG supporting categories are near-certain indicators
→ Supporting Actress
14 of last 15 SAG winners won the Oscar
Recent years
Action: Strongest correlation after DGA for director
When DGA + PGA + SAG Ensemble all align on the same film, the race is essentially decided. Only one film in history has lost after winning all three: Apollo 13 in 1996.
95%+ accuracy
When all major guilds align
For the 98th Oscars, the Academy now requires voters to watch all nominated films in a category before casting a final-round ballot. This is the first structural change in years that could weaken the guild-to-Oscar pipeline by reducing “coattail voting” based on buzz alone.
International films may benefit most — the Academy’s 4,000+ global members added since 2016 now have a stronger voice when all voters must actually watch everything. Guild correlations remain strong, but carry a new asterisk in 2026.
Read the full analysis →
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