Oscar Prediction Analysis
Data-driven insights, guild award breakdowns, and prediction strategies for the Academy Awards.
Warner Bros. Won 11 Oscars in One Night
One Battle After Another won 6 Oscars, Sinners 4 and Weapons 1, and Kalshi's last traded prices for those wins on March 14 ranged from 16% to 96%.
Skill Update v1.3: Whale Leaderboard
The Oscar Brief API now includes a whale leaderboard that ranks nominees by large-trade volume, so one API call shows where the large trades are going.
Skill Update v1.2: Telegram-Friendly Formatting
The OpenClaw skill now detects Telegram context and adapts its output for narrow screens. Markdown tables and tree structures are replaced with compact, mobile-first layouts.
Skill Update v1.1: Full Precursor Coverage
The OpenClaw skill now surfaces Critics Choice and Golden Globes data across all endpoints. Golden Globes dual-winner categories are fully supported.
Josh Safdie Used a 1955 Documentary Short as the Visual Bible for 'Marty Supreme'
Safdie and DP Darius Khondji tracked a rare lens at Panavision back to a 1965 Italian film. He listened to Peter Gabriel's 'I Have the Touch' over 1,000 times while writing the script.
The Film That Made Chloé Zhao Want to Direct Is a 1997 Wong Kar-wai Movie
Zhao and co-writer Maggie O'Farrell discovered they share the same favorite filmmaker. Terrence Malick watched the film and emailed: 'My heart was in my throat the whole time.'
Ryan Coogler Kept a Giant Poster of 'The Thing' in His Office While Making 'Sinners'
The Thing. Near Dark. Lovers Rock. Metallica's 'One.' And Puss in Boots: The Last Wish. These are the films Coogler actually named.
The French Connection Print Was on Set Every Day PTA Shot 'One Battle After Another'
Anderson kept a 35mm print of The French Connection on set as a daily visual reference. Here are all the films he and his collaborators said were in their heads while making it.
Oscar Market Intelligence, Now Inside Your AI Agent
We released a free OpenClaw skill that gives AI agents access to live Oscar prediction market data. Real odds, whale trades, and precursor data instead of generic guesses.
PTA Wins DGA, Honors Adam Somner in Emotional Speech
Anderson took the DGA Saturday night and spent his speech talking about Adam Somner, his late first AD. The Oscar race looks over.
How WaitingForMacGuffin Works: Understanding Oscar Prediction Markets
Learn how WaitingForMacGuffin tracks real-money prediction market odds to forecast Academy Award winners.
Oscar Odds Explained: A Beginner's Guide to Prediction Markets
New to Oscar prediction markets? This guide explains prediction market odds in plain English: what the numbers mean and how to read them.
Best Actor 2026: DiCaprio vs. Chalamet and the Battle for Oscar's Top Prize
Two generations of leading men. Two very different films. SAG will likely decide who wins.
Best Actress 2026: Jessie Buckley's Path to Oscar
TIFF winner, Chloe Zhao directing, critical acclaim. At 64% odds, Buckley is the clear frontrunner.
Best Supporting Actress 2026: Can Ariana Grande Pull Off the Music-to-Oscar Crossover?
Pop stars rarely win acting Oscars. At 60% odds, Grande is trying to change that with Wicked.
Hamnet Oscar Predictions: Can Chloe Zhao's TIFF Winner Beat PTA?
TIFF People's Choice winners often become Best Picture contenders. Here's Hamnet's path to an upset.
Sinners Best Picture Chances: Can Ryan Coogler's Horror Film Make Oscar History?
97% on Rotten Tomatoes. Only one horror film has ever won Best Picture. Here's what Sinners is up against.
How Guild Awards Predict Oscar Winners: The Complete Data Guide
77 years of data reveals clear patterns. DGA is 88% accurate, PGA 80% since 2009. Here's what the numbers actually tell us.
2026 Oscar Predictions: What the Betting Markets Say
Forget pundit opinions. Here's what people with money on the line actually think will win at the 98th Academy Awards.
Best Picture 2026: Market Odds and Guild Probability Analysis
One Battle After Another leads at 60-70%, but the guilds haven't voted yet. Here's what each contender needs to win.
One Battle After Another: Will PTA Finally Win His First Oscar?
11 nominations, 0 wins. Paul Thomas Anderson is the heavy favorite, but 'overdue' narratives don't always pay off.
Best Director 2026: Why the DGA Award Matters More Than Any Other Precursor
88% accuracy over 77 years. What happens on February 7 at the DGA Awards will likely determine the Oscar winner.
The Math Behind Oscar Predictions: What 77 Years of Data Actually Tell Us
Guild awards have been predicting Oscar winners for decades. After looking at the numbers, some awards matter far more than others.
Academy Mandatory Viewing Rule 2026: How "The Brutalist Rule" Changes Oscar Predictions
Starting with the 98th Oscars, voters must watch every nominee before voting. Here's what the mandatory viewing rule means for prediction markets and why guild correlations could weaken.
How #OscarsSoWhite Changed Who Votes for Oscars and Why It Affects Your Predictions
The Academy doubled in size since 2016. From 5,800 members to 11,104, heavily international and more diverse. Here's how that membership shift changes Oscar outcomes and prediction market odds.
Payout Simulator: See What Your Oscar Picks Are Actually Worth
Pick winners across all 19 Oscar categories and see what your predictions would pay out at current market odds.
Whale Activity Alerts: Know When Big Money Moves the Oscar Markets
When someone places a trade big enough to move the odds, it shows up here. Real-time whale alerts across all Oscar categories.
Precursors Tracker: Guild Winners and Oscar Outcomes, Side by Side
See every DGA, PGA, SAG, and BAFTA winner mapped against every Oscar winner. Decades of data in one table.
Position Calculator: Know Your Costs Before You Trade
Calculate slippage, fill prices, and estimated payouts before placing a trade on Oscar prediction markets.
Nominees Browser: Live Odds for Every Oscar Nominee in One Place
Live odds for all Oscar nominees across 19 categories, updated every 5 minutes. Historical price charts included.
Awards Calendar: Every Date That Matters on the Road to Oscar Night
Track DGA, PGA, SAG, BAFTA, and every key awards season event. Know which dates move the market most.
Account Dashboard: Your Oscar Intelligence Hub
Six tools, 19 categories, live odds, and whale alerts. Your starting point for Oscar prediction market intelligence.