Last Updated: December 2025
Paul Thomas Anderson has racked up eleven Oscar nominations without a single win. After decades of near-misses with films like Boogie Nights, There Will Be Blood, and Phantom Thread, the prediction markets think this might finally be his year. Here's what the odds are saying and what the guild awards will reveal.
Current Market Odds
| Film | Kalshi | Polymarket | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| One Battle After Another | 65% | 68% | 60-70% |
| Hamnet | 22% | 20% | 18-22% |
| Sinners | 6% | 7% | 5-8% |
The guilds announce their winners in February. Don't treat current odds as final. They're a starting point, not a prediction.
The Frontrunner: One Battle After Another
Current Odds: 60-70% implied probability
Paul Thomas Anderson doesn't make small films. His Revolutionary War epic One Battle After Another was shot in VistaVision, a format abandoned by Hollywood in the 1960s. Leonardo DiCaprio takes on the kind of physically demanding role that generates Oscar buzz. Word from the set has DiCaprio living in period conditions during production, the type of commitment voters love to reward.
What works for it: PTA has 11 Oscar nominations and 0 wins. The "overdue" narrative is powerful. Period epic is an Academy-friendly genre. Strong reviews and box office ($204M worldwide).
What could go wrong: PTA could lose the DGA, which is 88% accurate. La La Land was at 91% and lost to Moonlight. “Overdue” doesn't always translate. Peter O'Toole had 8 nominations and never won.
Guild Scenario Analysis
| If This Happens... | Best Picture Probability |
|---|---|
| One Battle wins PGA + DGA | 95%+ |
| One Battle wins DGA, loses PGA | 70-75% |
| One Battle loses DGA, wins PGA | 60-65% |
| One Battle loses both | 20-30% |
The math is brutal: in these scenarios, losing the Directors Guild Award costs Anderson more than losing the Producers Guild.
The Main Challenger: Hamnet
Chloe Zhao follows her Best Picture and Best Director wins for Nomadland with something completely different: a Shakespeare family drama that won the TIFF People's Choice Award. Jessie Buckley delivers the kind of raw, grief-stricken performance that dominates awards conversations.
Since 1978, 9 TIFF People's Choice winners have won Best Picture. TIFF winners don't always convert, but when they do, they tend to be intimate, performance-driven dramas. That's exactly what Hamnet is. For it to win, Zhao needs to either take the PGA, take the DGA, or split the guilds with PTA.
The Dark Horse: Sinners
Ryan Coogler's horror film sits at 97% on Rotten Tomatoes, exceptional for any genre. Michael B. Jordan pulls double duty in a performance that's generating serious awards buzz. The catch? Horror almost never wins Best Picture.
Only 7 horror films have ever been nominated, and only Silence of the Lambs won. Horror has to be transcendently good to overcome Academy bias. Sinners might be, but a win would go against history.
The A24 Contender: Marty Supreme
Current Odds: 3-6% implied probability
Timothee Chalamet as a ping-pong prodigy, directed by Josh Safdie. It sounds like a niche indie, but A24 has become an Oscar machine. They've won two straight Best Actor trophies and learned exactly how to run campaigns.
The most likely scenario: Chalamet wins SAG, picks up Best Actor, but the film doesn't get PGA/DGA traction. Actor wins without Picture wins happen regularly.
The Musical Long Shot: Wicked: For Good
Current Odds: 1-3% implied probability
The Wicked sequel faces tough odds, but sequels have won before. The Godfather Part II and Return of the King both took home Best Picture. Ariana Grande is a Supporting Actress frontrunner, and the first film generated a massive cultural moment.
For Wicked to win, it would need PGA and a surprise DGA victory. Neither seems likely. This is a long shot for a reason.
What the Guilds Will Decide
The race isn't over until the guilds vote. Key dates to watch:
| Guild | Date | What It Tells Us |
|---|---|---|
| PGA | Feb 2026 | Same voting system as Academy. 80% correlation since 2009. |
| DGA | Feb 7, 2026 | 88% correlation with Best Director. |
| SAG Ensemble | Feb 2026 | 41% correlation with BP. Acting momentum indicator. |
The guild results in February will tell us more than anything the pundits write between now and then.
What the Prices Say
The frontrunner: One Battle After Another at 60-70%. Markets have been wrong before, and 60-70% probability means there's a real chance it loses.
The challenger: Hamnet at about 20% (+350). Since 1978, 9 TIFF People's Choice winners have won Best Picture.
The long shots: Sinners and Wicked: For Good, each under 10%. Horror films and musical sequels rarely win.
We'll know more in February.