Oscar Winner Odds

Prediction market odds on who will win at the 2026 Academy Awards ceremony.

Last updated: Dec 12, 2025, 3:43 PMLive

Early Season: Winner odds are volatile this early in awards season. Major precursor awards (Golden Globes, SAG, DGA, etc.) will significantly impact these numbers.

Best Picture

Who will win Best Picture?

One Battle After Another

78%

Hamnet

Sinners

Marty Supreme

Sentimental Value

Best Director

Who will win Best Director?

Paul Thomas Anderson

TBA

21%

Chloé Zhao

Hamnet

20%

Jafar Panahi

18%

Ryan Coogler

Sinners

17%

Joachim Trier

Sentimental Value

14%

Best Actor

Who will win Best Actor?

Leonardo DiCaprio

TBA

22%

Timothée Chalamet

TBA

22%

Wagner Moura

20%

Ethan Hawke

16%

Michael B. Jordan

Sinners

15%

Best Actress

Who will win Best Actress?

Jessie Buckley

TBA

22%

Rose Byrne

TBA

20%

Renate Reinsve

Sentimental Value

20%

Emma Stone

Bugonia

15%

Chase Infiniti

13%

Best Supporting Actor

Who will win Best Supporting Actor?

Stellan Skarsgard

46%

Sean Penn

27%

Benicio del Toro

13%

Jacob Elordi

11%

Best Supporting Actress

Who will win Best Supporting Actress?

Teyana Taylor

69%

Amy Madigan

20%

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas

Ariana Grande

Odessa Young

Wunmi Mosaku

Understanding Winner Odds

Winner odds differ from nomination odds in important ways:

They represent the probability of winning the actual Oscar, not just getting nominated
Early season odds are highly speculative and will shift dramatically after precursor awards
The favorite often emerges clearly after the Golden Globes, SAG, and guild awards
Historical data shows the SAG ensemble winner correlates strongly with Best Picture

Disclaimer: Odds represent implied probability from Kalshi prediction markets. Past performance and current odds do not guarantee outcomes. For entertainment and informational purposes only.