Best Actor 2026: DiCaprio vs. Chalamet and the Battle for Oscar's Top Prize

Leonardo DiCaprio won his first Oscar in 2016 after five nominations and decades of "when will Leo finally win?" discourse. Timothée Chalamet has one nomination, from Call Me by Your Name in 2018, and has been waiting for the right role ever since.

Now they're on a collision course. DiCaprio leads Paul Thomas Anderson's Revolutionary War epic One Battle After Another. Chalamet plays a ping-pong prodigy in Josh Safdie's Marty Supreme. The market sees it as a two-horse race, with everyone else fighting for scraps.

Current Market Odds

The race is closer than Best Picture, where DiCaprio's film dominates. That's notable. Best Actor often goes to a different film than Best Picture.

The SAG Factor

Screen Actors Guild Award correlation with Oscar Best Actor is strong but not absolute. Since 1995, SAG and Oscar have matched about 73% of the time. In the last 10 years, that number jumps to 80%.

Both DiCaprio and Chalamet fit the SAG-to-Oscar pattern. Whoever wins SAG will likely win Oscar.

Head-to-Head Comparison

Here's the key tension: DiCaprio's film has far better Best Picture odds, but Chalamet has never won. The Academy loves rewarding first-timers in the acting categories. It often splits Picture and Actor between different films.

My Assessment

The market has this about right. Chalamet at 45% and DiCaprio at 33% reflects genuine uncertainty.

I'd lean slightly toward Chalamet because A24's track record in Best Actor is exceptional, DiCaprio already has an Oscar, and voters may want to anoint the next generation.

But if One Battle After Another dominates the guilds, DiCaprio could sweep. The SAG Award will tell us which scenario we're in.

Wait for SAG before making any moves here.