2026 archive · final odds, 14 March 2026
The 2026 Oscars
The 98th Academy Awards · 15 March 2026 · Dolby Theatre at Ovation Hollywood
This is the frozen record of the 2026 season: the Academy's nominees and winners, with Kalshi's last traded prices on 14 March 2026, the day before the ceremony, and every daily close from nominations day (22 January 2026). Frozen on 30 September 2026. Nothing on these pages updates.
21
categories with a Kalshi market
110
nominees, every one with its own market
18 of 21
won by the market favorite of 14 March
Winners and final prices, by category
Best Picture
One Battle after Another
Adam Somner, Sara Murphy and Paul Thomas Anderson, Producers
Market favorite on 14 March
Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson
One Battle after Another
Market favorite on 14 March
Best Actor
Michael B. Jordan
Sinners
Market favorite on 14 March
Best Actress
Jessie Buckley
Hamnet
Market favorite on 14 March
Best Supporting Actor
Sean Penn
One Battle after Another
Market favorite on 14 March
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Madigan
Weapons
Market favorite on 14 March
Best Original Screenplay
Sinners
Written by Ryan Coogler
Market favorite on 14 March
Best Adapted Screenplay
One Battle after Another
Written by Paul Thomas Anderson
Market favorite on 14 March
Best Animated Feature
KPop Demon Hunters
Maggie Kang, Chris Appelhans and Michelle L.M. Wong
Market favorite on 14 March
Best International Feature
Sentimental Value
Norway
Market favorite on 14 March
Best Documentary Feature
Mr. Nobody against Putin
David Borenstein, Pavel Talankin, Helle Faber and Alžběta Karásková
Favorite on 14 March: The Perfect Neighbor, 65%
Best Casting
One Battle after Another
Cassandra Kulukundis
Favorite on 14 March: Sinners, 78%
Best Cinematography
Sinners
Autumn Durald Arkapaw
Favorite on 14 March: One Battle after Another, 78%
Best Film Editing
One Battle after Another
Andy Jurgensen
Market favorite on 14 March
Best Costume Design
Frankenstein
Kate Hawley
Market favorite on 14 March
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Frankenstein
Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel and Cliona Furey
Market favorite on 14 March
Best Production Design
Frankenstein
Production Design: Tamara Deverell; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau
Market favorite on 14 March
Best Original Score
Sinners
Ludwig Goransson
Market favorite on 14 March
Best Original Song
Golden
from KPop Demon Hunters; Music and Lyric by EJAE, Mark Sonnenblick, Joong Gyu Kwak, Yu Han Lee, Hee Dong Nam, Jeong Hoon Seo and Teddy Park
Market favorite on 14 March
Best Sound
F1
Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Gary A. Rizzo and Juan Peralta
Market favorite on 14 March
Best Visual Effects
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett
Market favorite on 14 March
The market favorite lost in 3 categories: Best Documentary Feature, Best Casting and Best Cinematography.
How to read these numbers
- Final price is the last traded price on Kalshi during 14 March 2026, New York time. 77% means a contract that paid $1 if the nominee won last traded at 77 cents.
- Nominations day is the last traded price on 22 January 2026, the day the Academy announced the nominees.
- Volume is the number of contracts traded over the life of each market, as Kalshi counts it, and is shown as contracts. Each contract paid $1 if the nominee won, but the money actually paid for the contracts was less, and this record holds no dollar figure.
- Names are the Academy's, exactly as it lists them. Kalshi's own spelling is kept in the data files.
Looking for this season? Current Oscar odds.
Sources: the Academy's results page (Internet Archive copy, 20 March 2026) · Kalshi's settled markets and daily prices · the site's own server record of ceremony day. Frozen on 30 September 2026.
A price is the last traded price on Kalshi, read as the market's implied chance: 77% means 77 cents for a contract that paid $1 if the nominee won. Market data, not advice.