2026 archive · final odds, 14 March 2026
Best Actress
98th Academy Awards · 15 March 2026 · Academy category: Actress in a Leading Role
Jessie Buckley won. Its last traded price on Kalshi on 14 March 2026 was 97%. It was the market favorite.
5 nominees · final price on 14 March 2026The big number is the last traded price on Kalshi on 14 March 2026, the day before the ceremony. Under each name: the last traded price on nominations day and the volume.Kalshi counts volume in contracts. Each contract paid $1 if it won, but the money paid for the contracts was less, and this record holds no dollar figure, so volume is shown as contracts.
Jessie Buckley
Hamnet
Nominations day 88% · 1.71M contracts traded
Rose Byrne
If I Had Legs I'd Kick You
Nominations day 9% · 1.72M contracts traded
Emma Stone
Bugonia
Nominations day 3% · 1.50M contracts traded
Kate Hudson
Song Sung Blue
Nominations day 2% · 1.09M contracts traded
Renate Reinsve
Sentimental Value
Nominations day 2% · 486K contracts traded
Daily closing price · 22 January to 14 March 2026
Best Actress 2026
Every daily close, as a table
| Date | Jessie Buckley | Rose Byrne | Emma Stone | Kate Hudson | Renate Reinsve |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jan | 88% | 9% | 3% | 2% | 2% |
| 23 Jan | 89% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| 24 Jan | 90% | 8% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| 25 Jan | 88% | 6% | 2% | 4% | 2% |
| 26 Jan | 88% | 7% | 4% | 4% | 2% |
| 27 Jan | 88% | 8% | 2% | 4% | 2% |
| 28 Jan | 88% | 7% | 3% | 4% | 2% |
| 29 Jan | 89% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| 30 Jan | 89% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 2% |
| 31 Jan | 89% | 7% | 3% | 3% | 2% |
| 1 Feb | 88% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 2% |
| 2 Feb | 89% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 2% |
| 3 Feb | 87% | 6% | 2% | 3% | 2% |
| 4 Feb | 87% | 6% | 3% | 3% | 2% |
| 5 Feb | 88% | 6% | 4% | 4% | 2% |
| 6 Feb | 88% | 6% | 2% | 4% | 2% |
| 7 Feb | 86% | 7% | 4% | 3% | 2% |
| 8 Feb | 88% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 2% |
| 9 Feb | 87% | 7% | 3% | 3% | 2% |
| 10 Feb | 88% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 2% |
| 11 Feb | 89% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 1% |
| 12 Feb | 88% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 2% |
| 13 Feb | 90% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 2% |
| 14 Feb | 89% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 2% |
| 15 Feb | 89% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 2% |
| 16 Feb | 89% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 2% |
| 17 Feb | 89% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 2% |
| 18 Feb | 89% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 2% |
| 19 Feb | 88% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% |
| 20 Feb | 89% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 2% |
| 21 Feb | 89% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 2% |
| 22 Feb | 91% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| 23 Feb | 90% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| 24 Feb | 91% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| 25 Feb | 91% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| 26 Feb | 91% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| 27 Feb | 92% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| 28 Feb | 92% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| 1 Mar | 95% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| 2 Mar | 95% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| 3 Mar | 95% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| 4 Mar | 96% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| 5 Mar | 95% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| 6 Mar | 95% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| 7 Mar | 95% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| 8 Mar | 94% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| 9 Mar | 95% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 10 Mar | 96% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 11 Mar | 97% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 12 Mar | 96% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 13 Mar | 97% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 14 Mar | 97% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
A dot means no trade that day. A blank means Kalshi returned no daily record for that day.
Ceremony day · before the first award
The lowest price on offer (the ask), as the site's own server recorded it on 15 March 2026, before Kalshi closed the first market of the night at 7:34 pm ET. An ask, not a trade.
- Jessie Buckley98% · 6:21 pm ET
- Rose Byrne3% · 6:21 pm ET
- Emma Stonenot recorded
- Kate Hudsonnot recorded
- Renate Reinsvenot recorded
The Kalshi market
Event KXOSCARACTR-26 listed 16 markets: one for each of the 5 nominees and 11 for contenders who were not nominated or for a tie (142K contracts traded). In all, 6.65M contracts traded.
Kalshi settled KXOSCARACTR-26-JES "yes" and every other market "no", on 16 March 2026 (UTC).
The 11 other markets
- Cynthia Erivo · KXOSCARACTR-26-CYN46,408 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Tie · KXOSCARACTR-26-TIE34,720 contracts · closed 16 Mar
- Jennifer Lawrence · KXOSCARACTR-26-JEN27,983 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Sydney Sweeney · KXOSCARACTR-26-SYD11,015 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Tessa Thompson · KXOSCARACTR-26-TES6,168 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Julia Roberts · KXOSCARACTR-26-JUL5,105 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Eva Victor · KXOSCARACTR-26-EVA3,765 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Laura Dern · KXOSCARACTR-26-LAU2,513 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Emily Blunt · KXOSCARACTR-26-EMI2,152 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Cate Blanchett · KXOSCARACTR-26-CAT1,446 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- June Squibb · KXOSCARACTR-26-JUN616 contracts · closed 22 Jan
Sources: the Academy's results page (Internet Archive copy, 20 March 2026) · Kalshi's settled markets and daily prices · the site's own server record of ceremony day. Frozen on 30 September 2026.
A price is the last traded price on Kalshi, read as the market's implied chance: 77% means 77 cents for a contract that paid $1 if the nominee won. Market data, not advice.