2026 archive · final odds, 14 March 2026
Best Supporting Actor
98th Academy Awards · 15 March 2026 · Academy category: Actor in a Supporting Role
Sean Penn won. Its last traded price on Kalshi on 14 March 2026 was 77%. It was the market favorite.
5 nominees · final price on 14 March 2026The big number is the last traded price on Kalshi on 14 March 2026, the day before the ceremony. Under each name: the last traded price on nominations day and the volume.Kalshi counts volume in contracts. Each contract paid $1 if it won, but the money paid for the contracts was less, and this record holds no dollar figure, so volume is shown as contracts.
Sean Penn
One Battle after Another
Nominations day 19% · 1.54M contracts traded
Stellan Skarsgård
Sentimental Value
Nominations day 61% · 1.49M contracts traded
Delroy Lindo
Sinners
Nominations day 5% · 1.38M contracts traded
Benicio Del Toro
One Battle after Another
Nominations day 9% · 1.29M contracts traded
Jacob Elordi
Frankenstein
Nominations day 8% · 1.15M contracts traded
Daily closing price · 22 January to 14 March 2026
Best Supporting Actor 2026
Every daily close, as a table
| Date | Sean Penn | Stellan Skarsgård | Delroy Lindo | Benicio Del Toro | Jacob Elordi |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jan | 19% | 61% | 5% | 9% | 8% |
| 23 Jan | 17% | 61% | 6% | 9% | 8% |
| 24 Jan | 20% | 61% | 7% | 10% | 7% |
| 25 Jan | 25% | 62% | 6% | 9% | 8% |
| 26 Jan | 20% | 62% | 5% | 8% | 7% |
| 27 Jan | 18% | 64% | 5% | 8% | 7% |
| 28 Jan | 19% | 65% | 5% | 6% | 7% |
| 29 Jan | 20% | 65% | 5% | 7% | 7% |
| 30 Jan | 20% | 65% | 5% | 7% | 6% |
| 31 Jan | 21% | 63% | 6% | 7% | 7% |
| 1 Feb | 21% | 63% | 5% | 8% | 7% |
| 2 Feb | 19% | 65% | 4% | 7% | 7% |
| 3 Feb | 19% | 67% | 4% | 7% | 7% |
| 4 Feb | 18% | 68% | 3% | 7% | 7% |
| 5 Feb | 17% | 70% | 4% | 7% | 6% |
| 6 Feb | 18% | 68% | 4% | 8% | 7% |
| 7 Feb | 17% | 68% | 4% | 8% | 5% |
| 8 Feb | 17% | 68% | 4% | 8% | 6% |
| 9 Feb | 16% | 67% | 3% | 7% | 7% |
| 10 Feb | 16% | 68% | 3% | 8% | 6% |
| 11 Feb | 16% | 67% | 3% | 9% | 6% |
| 12 Feb | 16% | 67% | 3% | 9% | 5% |
| 13 Feb | 17% | 69% | 3% | 8% | 4% |
| 14 Feb | 16% | 68% | 3% | 9% | 4% |
| 15 Feb | 17% | 70% | 2% | 8% | 3% |
| 16 Feb | 18% | 68% | 3% | 8% | 4% |
| 17 Feb | 17% | 66% | 4% | 8% | 5% |
| 18 Feb | 18% | 67% | 4% | 9% | 5% |
| 19 Feb | 18% | 66% | 4% | 9% | 5% |
| 20 Feb | 17% | 66% | 6% | 9% | 5% |
| 21 Feb | 17% | 66% | 3% | 9% | 5% |
| 22 Feb | 55% | 30% | 4% | 8% | 5% |
| 23 Feb | 57% | 27% | 7% | 7% | 5% |
| 24 Feb | 54% | 28% | 9% | 7% | 5% |
| 25 Feb | 55% | 27% | 7% | 6% | 6% |
| 26 Feb | 55% | 29% | 6% | 7% | 5% |
| 27 Feb | 53% | 27% | 7% | 8% | 5% |
| 28 Feb | 55% | 26% | 9% | 7% | 3% |
| 1 Mar | 77% | 14% | 8% | 2% | 2% |
| 2 Mar | 76% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 2% |
| 3 Mar | 73% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 2% |
| 4 Mar | 71% | 20% | 7% | 3% | 2% |
| 5 Mar | 71% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 2% |
| 6 Mar | 72% | 18% | 9% | 2% | 2% |
| 7 Mar | 71% | 20% | 8% | 3% | 2% |
| 8 Mar | 70% | 21% | 8% | 3% | 2% |
| 9 Mar | 71% | 18% | 8% | 2% | 2% |
| 10 Mar | 70% | 20% | 9% | 2% | 2% |
| 11 Mar | 69% | 20% | 11% | 2% | 1% |
| 12 Mar | 71% | 17% | 10% | 1% | 1% |
| 13 Mar | 77% | 15% | 10% | 2% | 2% |
| 14 Mar | 77% | 15% | 9% | 2% | 2% |
A dot means no trade that day. A blank means Kalshi returned no daily record for that day.
Ceremony day · before the first award
The lowest price on offer (the ask), as the site's own server recorded it on 15 March 2026, before Kalshi closed the first market of the night at 7:34 pm ET. An ask, not a trade.
- Sean Penn77% · 6:21 pm ET
- Stellan Skarsgård16% · 6:21 pm ET
- Delroy Lindo8% · 6:21 pm ET
- Benicio Del Toro2% · 6:21 pm ET
- Jacob Elordi2% · 6:21 pm ET
The Kalshi market
Event KXOSCARSUPACTO-26 listed 17 markets: one for each of the 5 nominees and 12 for contenders who were not nominated or for a tie (231K contracts traded). In all, 7.08M contracts traded.
Kalshi settled KXOSCARSUPACTO-26-SEAN "yes" and every other market "no", on 16 March 2026 (UTC).
The 12 other markets
- Paul Mescal · KXOSCARSUPACTO-26-PAU110K contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Adam Sandler · KXOSCARSUPACTO-26-ADA40,581 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Tie · KXOSCARSUPACTO-26-TIE32,250 contracts · closed 16 Mar
- Miles Caton · KXOSCARSUPACTO-26-MIL20,769 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Jeremy Strong · KXOSCARSUPACTO-26-JER10,013 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Diego Luna · KXOSCARSUPACTO-26-DIE5,143 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Peter Dinklage · KXOSCARSUPACTO-26-PET3,395 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Jack O'Connell · KXOSCARSUPACTO-26-JACK3,241 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Andrew Garfield · KXOSCARSUPACTO-26-AND2,934 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Jonathan Bailey · KXOSCARSUPACTO-26-JON1,251 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Sean Bean · KXOSCARSUPACTO-26-SEA581 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Akira Emoto · KXOSCARSUPACTO-26-AKI134 contracts · closed 22 Jan
Sources: the Academy's results page (Internet Archive copy, 20 March 2026) · Kalshi's settled markets and daily prices · the site's own server record of ceremony day. Frozen on 30 September 2026.
A price is the last traded price on Kalshi, read as the market's implied chance: 77% means 77 cents for a contract that paid $1 if the nominee won. Market data, not advice.