2026 archive · final odds, 14 March 2026
Best Actor
98th Academy Awards · 15 March 2026 · Academy category: Actor in a Leading Role
Michael B. Jordan won. Its last traded price on Kalshi on 14 March 2026 was 54%. It was the market favorite.
5 nominees · final price on 14 March 2026The big number is the last traded price on Kalshi on 14 March 2026, the day before the ceremony. Under each name: the last traded price on nominations day and the volume.Kalshi counts volume in contracts. Each contract paid $1 if it won, but the money paid for the contracts was less, and this record holds no dollar figure, so volume is shown as contracts.
Michael B. Jordan
Sinners
Nominations day 8% · 6.79M contracts traded
Timothée Chalamet
Marty Supreme
Nominations day 76% · 5.76M contracts traded
Leonardo DiCaprio
One Battle after Another
Nominations day 14% · 4.55M contracts traded
Wagner Moura
The Secret Agent
Nominations day 4% · 4.08M contracts traded
Ethan Hawke
Blue Moon
Nominations day 4% · 3.37M contracts traded
Daily closing price · 22 January to 14 March 2026
Best Actor 2026
Every daily close, as a table
| Date | Michael B. Jordan | Timothée Chalamet | Leonardo DiCaprio | Wagner Moura | Ethan Hawke |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jan | 8% | 76% | 14% | 4% | 4% |
| 23 Jan | 9% | 74% | 14% | 4% | 4% |
| 24 Jan | 9% | 73% | 13% | 4% | 4% |
| 25 Jan | 10% | 75% | 13% | 3% | 3% |
| 26 Jan | 9% | 74% | 13% | 4% | 3% |
| 27 Jan | 12% | 72% | 11% | 4% | 3% |
| 28 Jan | 12% | 72% | 13% | 4% | 3% |
| 29 Jan | 12% | 72% | 13% | 4% | 4% |
| 30 Jan | 12% | 73% | 14% | 3% | 4% |
| 31 Jan | 10% | 73% | 13% | 4% | 4% |
| 1 Feb | 12% | 73% | 11% | 2% | 4% |
| 2 Feb | 11% | 71% | 12% | 3% | 4% |
| 3 Feb | 11% | 72% | 12% | 3% | 4% |
| 4 Feb | 9% | 72% | 11% | 2% | 4% |
| 5 Feb | 8% | 72% | 11% | 2% | 4% |
| 6 Feb | 9% | 76% | 11% | 2% | 4% |
| 7 Feb | 10% | 74% | 11% | 3% | 4% |
| 8 Feb | 8% | 76% | 11% | 3% | 4% |
| 9 Feb | 9% | 76% | 10% | 2% | 2% |
| 10 Feb | 9% | 75% | 10% | 3% | 4% |
| 11 Feb | 9% | 77% | 11% | 3% | 4% |
| 12 Feb | 8% | 78% | 10% | 3% | 3% |
| 13 Feb | 7% | 79% | 10% | 3% | 3% |
| 14 Feb | 8% | 78% | 10% | 3% | 3% |
| 15 Feb | 8% | 78% | 9% | 3% | 3% |
| 16 Feb | 8% | 78% | 10% | 3% | 4% |
| 17 Feb | 8% | 77% | 9% | 3% | 4% |
| 18 Feb | 9% | 77% | 10% | 3% | 4% |
| 19 Feb | 9% | 78% | 10% | 3% | 4% |
| 20 Feb | 9% | 77% | 9% | 4% | 4% |
| 21 Feb | 9% | 76% | 10% | 3% | 4% |
| 22 Feb | 9% | 74% | 10% | 4% | 4% |
| 23 Feb | 10% | 72% | 10% | 4% | 4% |
| 24 Feb | 11% | 71% | 11% | 4% | 4% |
| 25 Feb | 11% | 71% | 12% | 4% | 6% |
| 26 Feb | 13% | 69% | 14% | 4% | 7% |
| 27 Feb | 12% | 67% | 12% | 3% | 10% |
| 28 Feb | 11% | 68% | 12% | 4% | 9% |
| 1 Mar | 37% | 51% | 8% | 5% | 4% |
| 2 Mar | 36% | 54% | 7% | 6% | 4% |
| 3 Mar | 37% | 51% | 7% | 6% | 4% |
| 4 Mar | 35% | 56% | 6% | 3% | 4% |
| 5 Mar | 36% | 53% | 7% | 4% | 3% |
| 6 Mar | 44% | 45% | 6% | 4% | 3% |
| 7 Mar | 48% | 42% | 5% | 5% | 3% |
| 8 Mar | 50% | 44% | 5% | 4% | 3% |
| 9 Mar | 59% | 29% | 4% | 6% | 3% |
| 10 Mar | 61% | 29% | 5% | 4% | 2% |
| 11 Mar | 48% | 40% | 6% | 6% | 3% |
| 12 Mar | 55% | 34% | 7% | 5% | 2% |
| 13 Mar | 59% | 32% | 7% | 4% | 2% |
| 14 Mar | 54% | 35% | 7% | 6% | 2% |
A dot means no trade that day. A blank means Kalshi returned no daily record for that day.
Ceremony day · before the first award
The lowest price on offer (the ask), as the site's own server recorded it on 15 March 2026, before Kalshi closed the first market of the night at 7:34 pm ET. An ask, not a trade.
- Michael B. Jordan58% · 6:21 pm ET
- Timothée Chalamet33% · 6:21 pm ET
- Leonardo DiCaprio5% · 6:21 pm ET
- Wagner Moura6% · 6:21 pm ET
- Ethan Hawke2% · 6:21 pm ET
The Kalshi market
Event KXOSCARACTO-26 listed 16 markets: one for each of the 5 nominees and 11 for contenders who were not nominated or for a tie (1.02M contracts traded). In all, 25.56M contracts traded.
Kalshi settled KXOSCARACTO-26-MIC "yes" and every other market "no", on 16 March 2026 (UTC).
The 11 other markets
- Tie · KXOSCARACTO-26-TIE438K contracts · closed 16 Mar
- Jesse Plemons · KXOSCARACTO-26-JES147K contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Jeremy Allen White · KXOSCARACTO-26-JER130K contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Dwayne Johnson · KXOSCARACTO-26-DWA97,108 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Paul Mescal · KXOSCARACTO-26-PAU67,122 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Brendan Fraser · KXOSCARACTO-26-BRE46,470 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Daniel Day-Lewis · KXOSCARACTO-26-DAN26,073 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Hugh Jackman · KXOSCARACTO-26-HUG24,603 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- George Clooney · KXOSCARACTO-26-GEO23,166 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Colin Farrell · KXOSCARACTO-26-COL9,444 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Channing Tatum · KXOSCARACTO-26-CHA7,727 contracts · closed 22 Jan
Sources: the Academy's results page (Internet Archive copy, 20 March 2026) · Kalshi's settled markets and daily prices · the site's own server record of ceremony day. Frozen on 30 September 2026.
A price is the last traded price on Kalshi, read as the market's implied chance: 77% means 77 cents for a contract that paid $1 if the nominee won. Market data, not advice.