2026 archive · final odds, 14 March 2026
Best Original Song
98th Academy Awards · 15 March 2026 · Academy category: Music (Original Song)
Golden won. Its last traded price on Kalshi on 14 March 2026 was 86%. It was the market favorite.
5 nominees · final price on 14 March 2026The big number is the last traded price on Kalshi on 14 March 2026, the day before the ceremony. Under each name: the last traded price on nominations day and the volume.Kalshi counts volume in contracts. Each contract paid $1 if it won, but the money paid for the contracts was less, and this record holds no dollar figure, so volume is shown as contracts.
Golden
from KPop Demon Hunters; Music and Lyric by EJAE, Mark Sonnenblick, Joong Gyu Kwak, Yu Han Lee, Hee Dong Nam, Jeong Hoon Seo and Teddy Park
Nominations day 87% · 591K contracts traded
I Lied To You
from Sinners; Music and Lyric by Raphael Saadiq and Ludwig Goransson
Nominations day 14% · 363K contracts traded
Dear Me
from Diane Warren: Relentless; Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
Nominations day 1% · 184K contracts traded
Train Dreams
from Train Dreams; Music by Nick Cave and Bryce Dessner; Lyric by Nick Cave
Nominations day 1% · 51,147 contracts traded
Sweet Dreams Of Joy
from Viva Verdi!; Music and Lyric by Nicholas Pike
Nominations day 5% · 46,193 contracts traded
Daily closing price · 22 January to 14 March 2026
Best Original Song 2026
Every daily close, as a table
| Date | Golden | I Lied To You | Dear Me | Train Dreams | Sweet Dreams Of Joy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jan | 87% | 14% | 1% | 1% | 5% |
| 23 Jan | 86% | 14% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 24 Jan | 86% | 13% | 1% | · | 1% |
| 25 Jan | 84% | 16% | 1% | 1% | · |
| 26 Jan | 86% | 14% | 1% | · | · |
| 27 Jan | 86% | 14% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 28 Jan | 85% | 13% | 1% | 1% | · |
| 29 Jan | 87% | 14% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 30 Jan | 86% | 14% | 1% | 1% | · |
| 31 Jan | 86% | 14% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 1 Feb | 85% | 15% | 1% | · | · |
| 2 Feb | 86% | 14% | 1% | 1% | · |
| 3 Feb | 87% | 13% | 1% | 1% | · |
| 4 Feb | 85% | 15% | 2% | · | · |
| 5 Feb | 86% | 13% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| 6 Feb | 86% | 13% | · | · | · |
| 7 Feb | 86% | 13% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| 8 Feb | 86% | 14% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| 9 Feb | 86% | 14% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| 10 Feb | 88% | 13% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 11 Feb | 87% | 13% | 1% | ||
| 12 Feb | 89% | 12% | 1% | · | · |
| 13 Feb | 89% | 11% | 1% | ||
| 14 Feb | 89% | 11% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 15 Feb | 89% | 10% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 16 Feb | 89% | 10% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 17 Feb | 89% | 10% | · | 1% | · |
| 18 Feb | 89% | 10% | 1% | 1% | · |
| 19 Feb | 89% | 11% | 1% | · | · |
| 20 Feb | 88% | 11% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| 21 Feb | 88% | 11% | 2% | · | · |
| 22 Feb | 88% | 11% | 1% | · | · |
| 23 Feb | 87% | 12% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 24 Feb | 87% | 13% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 25 Feb | 87% | 13% | 1% | · | · |
| 26 Feb | 87% | 13% | 1% | · | 1% |
| 27 Feb | 87% | 13% | 1% | · | · |
| 28 Feb | 87% | 12% | 1% | · | 1% |
| 1 Mar | 83% | 16% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 2 Mar | 86% | 15% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 3 Mar | 92% | 7% | 1% | 1% | · |
| 4 Mar | 92% | 8% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 5 Mar | 90% | 10% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 6 Mar | 89% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 1% |
| 7 Mar | 88% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 1% |
| 8 Mar | 90% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 1% |
| 9 Mar | 87% | 14% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| 10 Mar | 86% | 14% | 2% | · | 1% |
| 11 Mar | 87% | 13% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| 12 Mar | 87% | 14% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 13 Mar | 86% | 15% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| 14 Mar | 86% | 15% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
A dot means no trade that day. A blank means Kalshi returned no daily record for that day.
Ceremony day · before the first award
The lowest price on offer (the ask), as the site's own server recorded it on 15 March 2026, before Kalshi closed the first market of the night at 7:34 pm ET. An ask, not a trade.
- Golden84% · 6:21 pm ET
- I Lied To You16% · 6:21 pm ET
- Dear Me2% · 2:01 pm ET
- Train Dreamsnot recorded
- Sweet Dreams Of Joynot recorded
The Kalshi market
Event KXOSCARSONG-26 listed 16 markets: one for each of the 5 nominees and 11 for contenders who were not nominated or for a tie (28,445 contracts traded). In all, 1.26M contracts traded.
Kalshi settled KXOSCARSONG-26-GOL "yes" and every other market "no", on 16 March 2026 (UTC).
The 11 other markets
- Tie · KXOSCARSONG-26-TIE17,059 contracts · closed 16 Mar
- F1 · KXOSCARSONG-26-F13,657 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Last Time (I Seen The Sun) · KXOSCARSONG-26-LAS1,754 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Highest 2 Lowest · KXOSCARSONG-26-HIG1,128 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- As Alive As You Need Me To Be · KXOSCARSONG-26-ASA1,096 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- No Place Like Home · KXOSCARSONG-26-NOP991 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Dream As One · KXOSCARSONG-26-DRE868 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Salt Then Sour Then Sweet · KXOSCARSONG-26-SAL734 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- The Girl In The Bubble · KXOSCARSONG-26-GIR608 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Our Love · KXOSCARSONG-26-OUR317 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Dying To Live · KXOSCARSONG-26-DY233 contracts · closed 22 Jan
Sources: the Academy's results page (Internet Archive copy, 20 March 2026) · Kalshi's settled markets and daily prices · the site's own server record of ceremony day. Frozen on 30 September 2026.
A price is the last traded price on Kalshi, read as the market's implied chance: 77% means 77 cents for a contract that paid $1 if the nominee won. Market data, not advice.