2026 archive · final odds, 14 March 2026
Best Sound
98th Academy Awards · 15 March 2026 · Academy category: Sound
F1 won. Its last traded price on Kalshi on 14 March 2026 was 79%. It was the market favorite.
5 nominees · final price on 14 March 2026The big number is the last traded price on Kalshi on 14 March 2026, the day before the ceremony. Under each name: the last traded price on nominations day and the volume.Kalshi counts volume in contracts. Each contract paid $1 if it won, but the money paid for the contracts was less, and this record holds no dollar figure, so volume is shown as contracts.
F1
Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Gary A. Rizzo and Juan Peralta
Nominations day 80% · 216K contracts traded
Sinners
Chris Welcker, Benjamin A. Burtt, Felipe Pacheco, Brandon Proctor and Steve Boeddeker
Nominations day 16% · 177K contracts traded
Sirāt
Amanda Villavieja, Laia Casanovas and Yasmina Praderas
Nominations day 3% · 115K contracts traded
One Battle after Another
José Antonio García, Christopher Scarabosio and Tony Villaflor
Nominations day 4% · 65,830 contracts traded
Frankenstein
Greg Chapman, Nathan Robitaille, Nelson Ferreira, Christian Cooke and Brad Zoern
Nominations day 2% · 39,643 contracts traded
Daily closing price · 22 January to 14 March 2026
Best Sound 2026
Every daily close, as a table
| Date | F1 | Sinners | Sirāt | One Battle after Another | Frankenstein |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jan | 80% | 16% | 3% | 4% | 2% |
| 23 Jan | 80% | 15% | 4% | 3% | 1% |
| 24 Jan | 80% | 16% | 4% | 3% | 1% |
| 25 Jan | 81% | 9% | 4% | 3% | 2% |
| 26 Jan | 85% | 12% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| 27 Jan | 85% | 11% | 3% | 2% | · |
| 28 Jan | 84% | 11% | 3% | · | · |
| 29 Jan | 87% | 10% | 2% | 3% | 1% |
| 30 Jan | 86% | 10% | 6% | 3% | 1% |
| 31 Jan | 87% | 10% | 3% | · | · |
| 1 Feb | 84% | 11% | 4% | · | · |
| 2 Feb | 85% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% |
| 3 Feb | 83% | 12% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| 4 Feb | 82% | 13% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| 5 Feb | 81% | 13% | 3% | 3% | · |
| 6 Feb | 83% | 16% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| 7 Feb | 82% | 16% | 6% | 2% | · |
| 8 Feb | 81% | 15% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| 9 Feb | 81% | 12% | · | 2% | 2% |
| 10 Feb | 83% | 14% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| 11 Feb | 82% | 14% | 2% | 2% | |
| 12 Feb | 81% | 13% | 4% | 2% | 2% |
| 13 Feb | 81% | 13% | · | 2% | 2% |
| 14 Feb | 82% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| 15 Feb | 81% | 18% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| 16 Feb | 80% | 15% | 3% | 2% | 2% |
| 17 Feb | 81% | 17% | · | 2% | 1% |
| 18 Feb | 79% | 16% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| 19 Feb | 79% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| 20 Feb | 80% | 16% | 4% | 2% | 2% |
| 21 Feb | 80% | 16% | · | · | 2% |
| 22 Feb | 91% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 1% |
| 23 Feb | 89% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% |
| 24 Feb | 89% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 2% |
| 25 Feb | 88% | 10% | 3% | · | 1% |
| 26 Feb | 87% | 10% | 6% | 2% | 1% |
| 27 Feb | 86% | 12% | 5% | · | · |
| 28 Feb | 84% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 2% |
| 1 Mar | 85% | 12% | 5% | · | 2% |
| 2 Mar | 86% | 12% | 7% | 2% | 2% |
| 3 Mar | 82% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 2% |
| 4 Mar | 81% | 13% | 3% | 2% | 2% |
| 5 Mar | 84% | 16% | 4% | 2% | 2% |
| 6 Mar | 79% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 2% |
| 7 Mar | 74% | 21% | 6% | 1% | 2% |
| 8 Mar | 75% | 20% | 3% | 1% | 2% |
| 9 Mar | 75% | 18% | 10% | 2% | 3% |
| 10 Mar | 79% | 18% | 3% | 1% | 3% |
| 11 Mar | 79% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 2% |
| 12 Mar | 78% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% |
| 13 Mar | 78% | 17% | 5% | 1% | 2% |
| 14 Mar | 79% | 19% | 6% | 1% | 1% |
A dot means no trade that day. A blank means Kalshi returned no daily record for that day.
Ceremony day · before the first award
The lowest price on offer (the ask), as the site's own server recorded it on 15 March 2026, before Kalshi closed the first market of the night at 7:34 pm ET. An ask, not a trade.
- F179% · 6:21 pm ET
- Sinners19% · 6:21 pm ET
- Sirāt6% · 6:21 pm ET
- One Battle after Anothernot recorded
- Frankensteinnot recorded
The Kalshi market
Event KXOSCARSOUND-26 listed 11 markets: one for each of the 5 nominees and 6 for contenders who were not nominated or for a tie (11,429 contracts traded). In all, 625K contracts traded.
Kalshi settled KXOSCARSOUND-26-F1 "yes" and every other market "no", on 16 March 2026 (UTC).
The 6 other markets
- Tie · KXOSCARSOUND-26-TIE5,109 contracts · closed 16 Mar
- Wicked: For Good · KXOSCARSOUND-26-WIC2,767 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Avatar: Fire and Ash · KXOSCARSOUND-26-AVA1,535 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning · KXOSCARSOUND-26-MIS1,237 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere · KXOSCARSOUND-26-SPR573 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Superman · KXOSCARSOUND-26-SUP208 contracts · closed 22 Jan
Sources: the Academy's results page (Internet Archive copy, 20 March 2026) · Kalshi's settled markets and daily prices · the site's own server record of ceremony day. Frozen on 30 September 2026.
A price is the last traded price on Kalshi, read as the market's implied chance: 77% means 77 cents for a contract that paid $1 if the nominee won. Market data, not advice.