2026 archive · final odds, 14 March 2026
Best Visual Effects
98th Academy Awards · 15 March 2026 · Academy category: Visual Effects
Avatar: Fire and Ash won. Its last traded price on Kalshi on 14 March 2026 was 94%. It was the market favorite.
5 nominees · final price on 14 March 2026The big number is the last traded price on Kalshi on 14 March 2026, the day before the ceremony. Under each name: the last traded price on nominations day and the volume.Kalshi counts volume in contracts. Each contract paid $1 if it won, but the money paid for the contracts was less, and this record holds no dollar figure, so volume is shown as contracts.
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett
Nominations day 89% · 116K contracts traded
Sinners
Michael Ralla, Espen Nordahl, Guido Wolter and Donnie Dean
Nominations day 1% · 108K contracts traded
F1
Ryan Tudhope, Nicolas Chevallier, Robert Harrington and Keith Dawson
Nominations day 14% · 82,322 contracts traded
Jurassic World Rebirth
David Vickery, Stephen Aplin, Charmaine Chan and Neil Corbould
Nominations day 3% · 43,325 contracts traded
The Lost Bus
Charlie Noble, David Zaretti, Russell Bowen and Brandon K. McLaughlin
Nominations day 1% · 21,463 contracts traded
Daily closing price · 22 January to 14 March 2026
Best Visual Effects 2026
Every daily close, as a table
| Date | Avatar: Fire and Ash | Sinners | F1 | Jurassic World Rebirth | The Lost Bus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jan | 89% | 1% | 14% | 3% | 1% |
| 23 Jan | 90% | 1% | 11% | · | · |
| 24 Jan | 88% | 19% | 12% | · | 20% |
| 25 Jan | 87% | 10% | 19% | 1% | 1% |
| 26 Jan | 91% | 3% | 4% | 1% | · |
| 27 Jan | 92% | 3% | 4% | · | · |
| 28 Jan | 91% | 3% | 4% | 1% | · |
| 29 Jan | 95% | 2% | 7% | 1% | 1% |
| 30 Jan | 90% | 4% | 4% | 1% | 1% |
| 31 Jan | 93% | 3% | 4% | · | · |
| 1 Feb | 92% | 4% | 3% | · | · |
| 2 Feb | 91% | 4% | 3% | 1% | · |
| 3 Feb | 91% | 5% | 5% | 1% | · |
| 4 Feb | 90% | 5% | 9% | 1% | · |
| 5 Feb | 89% | 6% | 6% | 1% | 1% |
| 6 Feb | 89% | 6% | 6% | 1% | 1% |
| 7 Feb | 90% | 10% | 4% | 5% | 1% |
| 8 Feb | 89% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 1% |
| 9 Feb | 94% | 3% | 4% | 1% | 1% |
| 10 Feb | 94% | 3% | 3% | 2% | |
| 11 Feb | 94% | 3% | 4% | ||
| 12 Feb | 95% | 2% | 8% | · | 1% |
| 13 Feb | 91% | 4% | 6% | · | · |
| 14 Feb | 93% | 4% | 6% | 1% | 1% |
| 15 Feb | 92% | 3% | 3% | · | · |
| 16 Feb | 92% | · | 6% | 1% | · |
| 17 Feb | 92% | 4% | 6% | 1% | |
| 18 Feb | 91% | · | 4% | 1% | · |
| 19 Feb | 92% | 3% | 6% | 1% | · |
| 20 Feb | 91% | 3% | 7% | · | 1% |
| 21 Feb | 93% | 3% | 6% | · | · |
| 22 Feb | 96% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 1% |
| 23 Feb | 95% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 1% |
| 24 Feb | 94% | 3% | 4% | 1% | · |
| 25 Feb | 95% | 3% | 4% | 1% | 1% |
| 26 Feb | 94% | 6% | 4% | 1% | 1% |
| 27 Feb | 95% | 6% | 3% | · | · |
| 28 Feb | 92% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% |
| 1 Mar | 96% | 3% | 3% | · | 2% |
| 2 Mar | 94% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 2% |
| 3 Mar | 92% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% |
| 4 Mar | 93% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 2% |
| 5 Mar | 94% | 3% | 2% | · | · |
| 6 Mar | 92% | 4% | 4% | 2% | · |
| 7 Mar | 92% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 2% |
| 8 Mar | 93% | 4% | 5% | 2% | 2% |
| 9 Mar | 92% | 3% | 4% | 1% | 2% |
| 10 Mar | 93% | 4% | 4% | 1% | 2% |
| 11 Mar | 92% | 4% | 4% | 1% | 2% |
| 12 Mar | 93% | 6% | 4% | · | 1% |
| 13 Mar | 93% | 5% | 4% | 1% | 2% |
| 14 Mar | 94% | 5% | 4% | 1% | 1% |
A dot means no trade that day. A blank means Kalshi returned no daily record for that day.
Ceremony day · before the first award
The lowest price on offer (the ask), as the site's own server recorded it on 15 March 2026, before Kalshi closed the first market of the night at 7:34 pm ET. An ask, not a trade.
- Avatar: Fire and Ash93% · 6:21 pm ET
- Sinners6% · 6:21 pm ET
- F14% · 6:21 pm ET
- Jurassic World Rebirthnot recorded
- The Lost Busnot recorded
The Kalshi market
Event KXOSCARVIS-26 listed 11 markets: one for each of the 5 nominees and 6 for contenders who were not nominated or for a tie (15,356 contracts traded). In all, 386K contracts traded.
Kalshi settled KXOSCARVIS-26-AVA "yes" and every other market "no", on 16 March 2026 (UTC).
The 6 other markets
- Frankenstein · KXOSCARVIS-26-FRA6,412 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Wicked: For Good · KXOSCARVIS-26-WIC3,185 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Tron: Ares · KXOSCARVIS-26-TRO2,424 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Tie · KXOSCARVIS-26-TIE1,706 contracts · closed 16 Mar
- Superman · KXOSCARVIS-26-SUP841 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- The Electric State · KXOSCARVIS-26-ELE788 contracts · closed 22 Jan
Sources: the Academy's results page (Internet Archive copy, 20 March 2026) · Kalshi's settled markets and daily prices · the site's own server record of ceremony day. Frozen on 30 September 2026.
A price is the last traded price on Kalshi, read as the market's implied chance: 77% means 77 cents for a contract that paid $1 if the nominee won. Market data, not advice.