2026 archive · final odds, 14 March 2026
Best Original Screenplay
98th Academy Awards · 15 March 2026 · Academy category: Writing (Original Screenplay)
Sinners won. Its last traded price on Kalshi on 14 March 2026 was 96%. It was the market favorite.
5 nominees · final price on 14 March 2026The big number is the last traded price on Kalshi on 14 March 2026, the day before the ceremony. Under each name: the last traded price on nominations day and the volume.Kalshi counts volume in contracts. Each contract paid $1 if it won, but the money paid for the contracts was less, and this record holds no dollar figure, so volume is shown as contracts.
Sinners
Written by Ryan Coogler
Nominations day 82% · 572K contracts traded
Marty Supreme
Written by Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie
Nominations day 7% · 488K contracts traded
Sentimental Value
Written by Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier
Nominations day 8% · 318K contracts traded
It Was Just an Accident
Written by Jafar Panahi; Script collaborators - Nader Saïvar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian
Nominations day 3% · 146K contracts traded
Blue Moon
Written by Robert Kaplow
Nominations day 1% · 114K contracts traded
Daily closing price · 22 January to 14 March 2026
Best Original Screenplay 2026
Every daily close, as a table
| Date | Sinners | Marty Supreme | Sentimental Value | It Was Just an Accident | Blue Moon |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jan | 82% | 7% | 8% | 3% | 1% |
| 23 Jan | 87% | 4% | 8% | 3% | 1% |
| 24 Jan | 84% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% |
| 25 Jan | 83% | 7% | 8% | 2% | · |
| 26 Jan | 84% | 7% | 8% | 2% | 1% |
| 27 Jan | 84% | 7% | 7% | 2% | 1% |
| 28 Jan | 82% | 7% | 7% | 2% | 1% |
| 29 Jan | 85% | 7% | 8% | 2% | 1% |
| 30 Jan | 82% | 9% | 8% | 2% | 1% |
| 31 Jan | 81% | 11% | 8% | 3% | · |
| 1 Feb | 81% | 11% | 8% | 3% | 1% |
| 2 Feb | 80% | 7% | 7% | 2% | 1% |
| 3 Feb | 79% | 9% | 8% | 1% | 2% |
| 4 Feb | 79% | 10% | 8% | 2% | 1% |
| 5 Feb | 80% | 10% | 6% | 2% | 2% |
| 6 Feb | 80% | 10% | 6% | · | 3% |
| 7 Feb | 80% | 10% | 6% | 2% | 3% |
| 8 Feb | 81% | 10% | 6% | 3% | 1% |
| 9 Feb | 80% | 11% | 8% | 2% | 1% |
| 10 Feb | 81% | 11% | 7% | 3% | |
| 11 Feb | 81% | 9% | 7% | 3% | |
| 12 Feb | 81% | 9% | 7% | · | · |
| 13 Feb | 81% | 9% | 8% | 3% | · |
| 14 Feb | 81% | 8% | 6% | 3% | 1% |
| 15 Feb | 81% | 8% | 7% | 3% | · |
| 16 Feb | 80% | 9% | 7% | · | 3% |
| 17 Feb | 80% | 8% | 11% | · | · |
| 18 Feb | 82% | 9% | 12% | 3% | 1% |
| 19 Feb | 80% | 7% | 12% | 2% | · |
| 20 Feb | 80% | 7% | 12% | 2% | · |
| 21 Feb | 81% | 6% | 12% | · | 1% |
| 22 Feb | 93% | 5% | 1% | 2% | · |
| 23 Feb | 93% | 6% | 3% | 2% | · |
| 24 Feb | 93% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| 25 Feb | 92% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| 26 Feb | 91% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 1% |
| 27 Feb | 91% | 8% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| 28 Feb | 91% | 6% | 2% | 2% | · |
| 1 Mar | 93% | 6% | 6% | 2% | 1% |
| 2 Mar | 93% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| 3 Mar | 94% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| 4 Mar | 94% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| 5 Mar | 95% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| 6 Mar | 96% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| 7 Mar | 96% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| 8 Mar | 95% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 9 Mar | 94% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 10 Mar | 96% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| 11 Mar | 97% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| 12 Mar | 95% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| 13 Mar | 96% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| 14 Mar | 96% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
A dot means no trade that day. A blank means Kalshi returned no daily record for that day.
Ceremony day · before the first award
The lowest price on offer (the ask), as the site's own server recorded it on 15 March 2026, before Kalshi closed the first market of the night at 7:34 pm ET. An ask, not a trade.
- Sinners96% · 6:21 pm ET
- Marty Supreme4% · 6:21 pm ET
- Sentimental Value2% · 6:21 pm ET
- It Was Just an Accidentnot recorded
- Blue Moonnot recorded
The Kalshi market
Event KXOSCARSPLAY-26 listed 17 markets: one for each of the 5 nominees and 12 for contenders who were not nominated or for a tie (65,743 contracts traded). In all, 1.70M contracts traded.
Kalshi settled KXOSCARSPLAY-26-SIN "yes" and every other market "no", on 16 March 2026 (UTC).
The 12 other markets
- Weapons · KXOSCARSPLAY-26-WEA29,679 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Sorry, Baby · KXOSCARSPLAY-26-SOR15,679 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- The Secret Agent · KXOSCARSPLAY-26-SEC9,964 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Tie · KXOSCARSPLAY-26-TIE3,247 contracts · closed 16 Mar
- Jay Kelly · KXOSCARSPLAY-26-JAY3,073 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- A House of Dynamite · KXOSCARSPLAY-26-HOU1,308 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- If I Had Legs I'd Kick You · KXOSCARSPLAY-26-IFI1,086 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Rental Family · KXOSCARSPLAY-26-REN913 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- The Smashing Machine · KXOSCARSPLAY-26-SMA419 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Roofman · KXOSCARSPLAY-26-ROO279 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- After the Hunt · KXOSCARSPLAY-26-AFT49 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Father, Mother, Sister, Brother · KXOSCARSPLAY-26-FAT47 contracts · closed 22 Jan
Notes
- Blue Moon: Kalshi opened this market on 2026-01-22.
Sources: the Academy's results page (Internet Archive copy, 20 March 2026) · Kalshi's settled markets and daily prices · the site's own server record of ceremony day. Frozen on 30 September 2026.
A price is the last traded price on Kalshi, read as the market's implied chance: 77% means 77 cents for a contract that paid $1 if the nominee won. Market data, not advice.