2026 archive · final odds, 14 March 2026
Best Production Design
98th Academy Awards · 15 March 2026 · Academy category: Production Design
Frankenstein won. Its last traded price on Kalshi on 14 March 2026 was 91%. It was the market favorite.
5 nominees · final price on 14 March 2026The big number is the last traded price on Kalshi on 14 March 2026, the day before the ceremony. Under each name: the last traded price on nominations day and the volume.Kalshi counts volume in contracts. Each contract paid $1 if it won, but the money paid for the contracts was less, and this record holds no dollar figure, so volume is shown as contracts.
Frankenstein
Production Design: Tamara Deverell; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau
Nominations day 87% · 238K contracts traded
Sinners
Production Design: Hannah Beachler; Set Decoration: Monique Champagne
Nominations day 7% · 153K contracts traded
Hamnet
Production Design: Fiona Crombie; Set Decoration: Alice Felton
Nominations day 1% · 149K contracts traded
Marty Supreme
Production Design: Jack Fisk; Set Decoration: Adam Willis
Nominations day 5% · 73,435 contracts traded
One Battle after Another
Production Design: Florencia Martin; Set Decoration: Anthony Carlino
Nominations day 3% · 48,128 contracts traded
Daily closing price · 22 January to 14 March 2026
Best Production Design 2026
Every daily close, as a table
| Date | Frankenstein | Sinners | Hamnet | Marty Supreme | One Battle after Another |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jan | 87% | 7% | 1% | 5% | 3% |
| 23 Jan | 87% | 7% | 1% | 7% | 2% |
| 24 Jan | 84% | 10% | 1% | 6% | 2% |
| 25 Jan | 82% | 9% | 1% | 6% | 3% |
| 26 Jan | 80% | 10% | 1% | 6% | 3% |
| 27 Jan | 81% | 9% | 1% | 6% | · |
| 28 Jan | 80% | 10% | 2% | 5% | · |
| 29 Jan | 83% | 10% | 1% | 6% | 3% |
| 30 Jan | 83% | 10% | 2% | 6% | 3% |
| 31 Jan | 83% | 11% | 2% | 6% | 3% |
| 1 Feb | 85% | 9% | 2% | 6% | · |
| 2 Feb | 81% | 10% | 1% | 5% | 2% |
| 3 Feb | 81% | 10% | 2% | 4% | · |
| 4 Feb | 80% | 12% | 2% | · | · |
| 5 Feb | 82% | 12% | 2% | 5% | 1% |
| 6 Feb | 81% | 11% | 2% | 5% | · |
| 7 Feb | 81% | 12% | 2% | · | · |
| 8 Feb | 81% | 12% | · | 6% | · |
| 9 Feb | 79% | 18% | 2% | 7% | · |
| 10 Feb | 82% | 12% | 1% | 3% | 1% |
| 11 Feb | 81% | 12% | 2% | 2% | |
| 12 Feb | 80% | 12% | 2% | 6% | 2% |
| 13 Feb | 80% | 12% | · | 6% | 2% |
| 14 Feb | 80% | 13% | 2% | 3% | · |
| 15 Feb | 80% | 13% | 4% | 4% | 2% |
| 16 Feb | 80% | 13% | · | 3% | 2% |
| 17 Feb | 79% | 14% | 2% | 3% | · |
| 18 Feb | 80% | 15% | 2% | 3% | · |
| 19 Feb | 79% | 15% | 2% | 7% | · |
| 20 Feb | 75% | 17% | 5% | 7% | 2% |
| 21 Feb | 74% | 13% | · | 6% | 2% |
| 22 Feb | 88% | 8% | 2% | 3% | 1% |
| 23 Feb | 89% | 8% | 3% | 3% | 2% |
| 24 Feb | 89% | 8% | · | 3% | · |
| 25 Feb | 90% | 8% | 3% | 3% | · |
| 26 Feb | 90% | 8% | 3% | 3% | 2% |
| 27 Feb | 90% | 8% | 3% | 4% | · |
| 28 Feb | 90% | 5% | 3% | 4% | · |
| 1 Mar | 90% | 6% | 3% | 4% | 1% |
| 2 Mar | 90% | 8% | 2% | 4% | 1% |
| 3 Mar | 89% | 8% | 2% | 4% | 2% |
| 4 Mar | 91% | 5% | 2% | 3% | 2% |
| 5 Mar | 91% | 6% | 1% | 3% | 1% |
| 6 Mar | 91% | 9% | 2% | 3% | 2% |
| 7 Mar | 90% | 8% | 3% | 3% | 1% |
| 8 Mar | 88% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 2% |
| 9 Mar | 89% | 9% | 3% | 2% | 2% |
| 10 Mar | 91% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| 11 Mar | 91% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| 12 Mar | 90% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| 13 Mar | 91% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| 14 Mar | 91% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
A dot means no trade that day. A blank means Kalshi returned no daily record for that day.
Ceremony day · before the first award
The lowest price on offer (the ask), as the site's own server recorded it on 15 March 2026, before Kalshi closed the first market of the night at 7:34 pm ET. An ask, not a trade.
- Frankenstein91% · 6:21 pm ET
- Sinners8% · 6:21 pm ET
- Hamnet2% · 6:21 pm ET
- Marty Supreme2% · 6:21 pm ET
- One Battle after Another2% · 6:21 pm ET
The Kalshi market
Event KXOSCARPROD-26 listed 16 markets: one for each of the 5 nominees and 11 for contenders who were not nominated or for a tie (21,131 contracts traded). In all, 683K contracts traded.
Kalshi settled KXOSCARPROD-26-FRA "yes" and every other market "no", on 16 March 2026 (UTC).
The 11 other markets
- Wicked: For Good · KXOSCARPROD-26-WIC8,381 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Avatar: Fire and Ash · KXOSCARPROD-26-AVA8,160 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Tie · KXOSCARPROD-26-TIE3,194 contracts · closed 16 Mar
- The Phoenician Scheme · KXOSCARPROD-26-PHO875 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Bugonia · KXOSCARPROD-26-BUG316 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- The Fantastic Four: First Steps · KXOSCARPROD-26-FAN93 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Kiss of the Spider Woman · KXOSCARPROD-26-KIS93 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Nouvelle Vague · KXOSCARPROD-26-NOU18 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Hedda · KXOSCARPROD-26-HED1 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere · KXOSCARPROD-26-SPR0 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Wake Up Dead Man · KXOSCARPROD-26-WAK0 contracts · closed 22 Jan
Sources: the Academy's results page (Internet Archive copy, 20 March 2026) · Kalshi's settled markets and daily prices · the site's own server record of ceremony day. Frozen on 30 September 2026.
A price is the last traded price on Kalshi, read as the market's implied chance: 77% means 77 cents for a contract that paid $1 if the nominee won. Market data, not advice.