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MacGuffin2026 Archive

2026 archive · final odds, 14 March 2026

2026 Oscar Winners

The 98th Academy Awards · 15 March 2026 · Dolby Theatre at Ovation Hollywood

The winners as the Academy lists them, with each winner's last traded price on Kalshi on 14 March 2026. The market favorite on that day won 18 of the 21 categories this site tracked; it lost in Best Documentary Feature, Best Casting and Best Cinematography.

Winners by category

Best PictureOne Battle after AnotherAdam Somner, Sara Murphy and Paul Thomas Anderson, Producers77%The winnerBest DirectorPaul Thomas AndersonOne Battle after Another92%The winnerBest ActorMichael B. JordanSinners54%The winnerBest ActressJessie BuckleyHamnet97%The winnerBest Supporting ActorSean PennOne Battle after Another77%The winnerBest Supporting ActressAmy MadiganWeapons53%The winnerBest Original ScreenplaySinnersWritten by Ryan Coogler96%The winnerBest Adapted ScreenplayOne Battle after AnotherWritten by Paul Thomas Anderson96%The winnerBest Animated FeatureKPop Demon HuntersMaggie Kang, Chris Appelhans and Michelle L.M. Wong94%The winnerBest International FeatureSentimental ValueNorway69%The winnerBest Documentary FeatureMr. Nobody against PutinDavid Borenstein, Pavel Talankin, Helle Faber and Alžběta Karásková23%The Perfect Neighbor, 65%Best CastingOne Battle after AnotherCassandra Kulukundis16%Sinners, 78%Best CinematographySinnersAutumn Durald Arkapaw21%One Battle after Another, 78%Best Film EditingOne Battle after AnotherAndy Jurgensen85%The winnerBest Costume DesignFrankensteinKate Hawley90%The winnerBest Makeup and HairstylingFrankensteinMike Hill, Jordan Samuel and Cliona Furey94%The winnerBest Production DesignFrankensteinProduction Design: Tamara Deverell; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau91%The winnerBest Original ScoreSinnersLudwig Goransson94%The winnerBest Original SongGoldenfrom KPop Demon Hunters; Music and Lyric by EJAE, Mark Sonnenblick, Joong Gyu Kwak, Yu Han Lee, Hee Dong Nam, Jeong Hoon Seo and Teddy Park86%The winnerBest SoundF1Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Gary A. Rizzo and Juan Peralta79%The winnerBest Visual EffectsAvatar: Fire and AshJoe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett94%The winner

Also awarded that night · not tracked by this site

  • Animated Short FilmThe Girl Who Cried Pearls
  • Documentary Short FilmAll the Empty Rooms
  • Live Action Short FilmThe Singers and Two People Exchanging Saliva (a tie)

Each category page has every nominee's final price and daily prices from nominations day. Back to the 2026 archive.

Sources: the Academy's results page (Internet Archive copy, 20 March 2026) · Kalshi's settled markets and daily prices · the site's own server record of ceremony day. Frozen on 30 September 2026.

A price is the last traded price on Kalshi, read as the market's implied chance: 77% means 77 cents for a contract that paid $1 if the nominee won. Market data, not advice.