2026 archive · final odds, 14 March 2026
Best Costume Design
98th Academy Awards · 15 March 2026 · Academy category: Costume Design
Frankenstein won. Its last traded price on Kalshi on 14 March 2026 was 90%. It was the market favorite.
5 nominees · final price on 14 March 2026The big number is the last traded price on Kalshi on 14 March 2026, the day before the ceremony. Under each name: the last traded price on nominations day and the volume.Kalshi counts volume in contracts. Each contract paid $1 if it won, but the money paid for the contracts was less, and this record holds no dollar figure, so volume is shown as contracts.
Frankenstein
Kate Hawley
Nominations day 86% · 156K contracts traded
Sinners
Ruth E. Carter
Nominations day 10% · 148K contracts traded
Hamnet
Malgosia Turzanska
Nominations day 3% · 99,049 contracts traded
Marty Supreme
Miyako Bellizzi
Nominations day 3% · 83,709 contracts traded
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Deborah L. Scott
Nominations day 3% · 54,371 contracts traded
Daily closing price · 22 January to 14 March 2026
Best Costume Design 2026
Every daily close, as a table
| Date | Frankenstein | Sinners | Hamnet | Marty Supreme | Avatar: Fire and Ash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jan | 86% | 10% | 3% | 3% | 3% |
| 23 Jan | 86% | 12% | 4% | 3% | 1% |
| 24 Jan | 86% | 8% | 6% | 4% | 3% |
| 25 Jan | 83% | 12% | 3% | 2% | 2% |
| 26 Jan | 83% | 13% | 3% | 3% | 1% |
| 27 Jan | 85% | 12% | · | 2% | 1% |
| 28 Jan | 84% | 12% | 3% | 2% | 2% |
| 29 Jan | 82% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 1% |
| 30 Jan | 83% | 10% | 6% | 2% | 1% |
| 31 Jan | 83% | 10% | · | 2% | 1% |
| 1 Feb | 84% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 1% |
| 2 Feb | 83% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% |
| 3 Feb | 82% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| 4 Feb | 83% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% |
| 5 Feb | 83% | 12% | 4% | 2% | 3% |
| 6 Feb | 83% | 12% | 1% | 2% | 2% |
| 7 Feb | 82% | 12% | 4% | 3% | 2% |
| 8 Feb | 80% | 12% | 4% | 3% | 2% |
| 9 Feb | 82% | 12% | 2% | 3% | 2% |
| 10 Feb | 83% | 15% | 2% | 3% | 2% |
| 11 Feb | 83% | 16% | 2% | 3% | 2% |
| 12 Feb | 84% | 11% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| 13 Feb | 85% | 10% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| 14 Feb | 87% | 12% | 2% | · | · |
| 15 Feb | 86% | 9% | 2% | · | 3% |
| 16 Feb | 86% | 9% | 2% | 3% | 2% |
| 17 Feb | 86% | 9% | 2% | · | · |
| 18 Feb | 87% | 11% | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| 19 Feb | 87% | 8% | 3% | 2% | · |
| 20 Feb | 85% | 9% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| 21 Feb | 86% | 12% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| 22 Feb | 91% | 7% | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| 23 Feb | 91% | 7% | 2% | · | 2% |
| 24 Feb | 91% | 7% | 2% | · | 2% |
| 25 Feb | 93% | 7% | 4% | 2% | · |
| 26 Feb | 93% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| 27 Feb | 92% | 8% | · | 1% | 2% |
| 28 Feb | 91% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 2% |
| 1 Mar | 93% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 2% |
| 2 Mar | 94% | 5% | · | 2% | 2% |
| 3 Mar | 93% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| 4 Mar | 92% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| 5 Mar | 92% | 6% | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| 6 Mar | 92% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| 7 Mar | 92% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 2% |
| 8 Mar | 90% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 2% |
| 9 Mar | 91% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 2% |
| 10 Mar | 90% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| 11 Mar | 92% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| 12 Mar | 91% | 7% | 2% | 3% | 1% |
| 13 Mar | 90% | 7% | 2% | 3% | 2% |
| 14 Mar | 90% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 1% |
A dot means no trade that day. A blank means Kalshi returned no daily record for that day.
Ceremony day · before the first award
The lowest price on offer (the ask), as the site's own server recorded it on 15 March 2026, before Kalshi closed the first market of the night at 7:34 pm ET. An ask, not a trade.
- Frankenstein91% · 6:21 pm ET
- Sinners6% · 6:21 pm ET
- Hamnet4% · 6:21 pm ET
- Marty Supreme2% · 6:21 pm ET
- Avatar: Fire and Ashnot recorded
The Kalshi market
Event KXOSCARCOSTUME-26 listed 17 markets: one for each of the 5 nominees and 12 for contenders who were not nominated or for a tie (52,330 contracts traded). In all, 594K contracts traded.
Kalshi settled KXOSCARCOSTUME-26-FRA "yes" and every other market "no", on 16 March 2026 (UTC).
The 12 other markets
- Wicked: For Good · KXOSCARCOSTUME-26-WIC39,374 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Hedda · KXOSCARCOSTUME-26-HED4,380 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale · KXOSCARCOSTUME-26-DOW3,945 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Tie · KXOSCARCOSTUME-26-TIE1,789 contracts · closed 15 Mar
- The Phoenician Scheme · KXOSCARCOSTUME-26-PHO699 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- One Battle After Another · KXOSCARCOSTUME-26-ONE613 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Kiss of the Spider Woman · KXOSCARCOSTUME-26-KIS409 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- The Fantastic Four: First Steps · KXOSCARCOSTUME-26-FAN386 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Bugonia · KXOSCARCOSTUME-26-BUG366 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Snow White · KXOSCARCOSTUME-26-SNO227 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Nouvelle Vague · KXOSCARCOSTUME-26-NOU94 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere · KXOSCARCOSTUME-26-SPR48 contracts · closed 22 Jan
Notes
- Avatar: Fire and Ash: Kalshi opened this market on 2026-01-22.
Sources: the Academy's results page (Internet Archive copy, 20 March 2026) · Kalshi's settled markets and daily prices · the site's own server record of ceremony day. Frozen on 30 September 2026.
A price is the last traded price on Kalshi, read as the market's implied chance: 77% means 77 cents for a contract that paid $1 if the nominee won. Market data, not advice.