2026 archive · final odds, 14 March 2026
Best International Feature
98th Academy Awards · 15 March 2026 · Academy category: International Feature Film
Sentimental Value won. Its last traded price on Kalshi on 14 March 2026 was 69%. It was the market favorite.
5 nominees · final price on 14 March 2026The big number is the last traded price on Kalshi on 14 March 2026, the day before the ceremony. Under each name: the last traded price on nominations day and the volume.Kalshi counts volume in contracts. Each contract paid $1 if it won, but the money paid for the contracts was less, and this record holds no dollar figure, so volume is shown as contracts.
Sentimental Value
Norway
Nominations day 68% · 528K contracts traded
The Secret Agent
Brazil
Nominations day 25% · 344K contracts traded
It Was Just an Accident
France
Nominations day 4% · 327K contracts traded
The Voice of Hind Rajab
Tunisia
Nominations day 3% · 202K contracts traded
Sirāt
Spain
Nominations day 7% · 131K contracts traded
Daily closing price · 22 January to 14 March 2026
Best International Feature 2026
Every daily close, as a table
| Date | Sentimental Value | The Secret Agent | It Was Just an Accident | The Voice of Hind Rajab | Sirāt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jan | 68% | 25% | 4% | 3% | 7% |
| 23 Jan | 64% | 32% | 3% | 3% | 1% |
| 24 Jan | 64% | 31% | 7% | 2% | 1% |
| 25 Jan | 60% | 31% | 5% | 4% | 1% |
| 26 Jan | 68% | 28% | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| 27 Jan | 71% | 25% | 5% | 1% | · |
| 28 Jan | 70% | 22% | 7% | 1% | 1% |
| 29 Jan | 70% | 21% | 8% | 2% | 1% |
| 30 Jan | 69% | 20% | 7% | 1% | 1% |
| 31 Jan | 70% | 21% | 7% | 3% | 1% |
| 1 Feb | 70% | 22% | 8% | · | · |
| 2 Feb | 70% | 22% | 7% | 3% | 1% |
| 3 Feb | 69% | 23% | 8% | 1% | · |
| 4 Feb | 70% | 23% | 7% | 2% | 1% |
| 5 Feb | 69% | 25% | 7% | 2% | 1% |
| 6 Feb | 67% | 25% | 6% | 2% | 1% |
| 7 Feb | 68% | 25% | 6% | 2% | 1% |
| 8 Feb | 68% | 27% | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| 9 Feb | 66% | 30% | 5% | 2% | · |
| 10 Feb | 64% | 30% | 6% | 2% | 1% |
| 11 Feb | 69% | 27% | 5% | 1% | |
| 12 Feb | 67% | 26% | 5% | 1% | 1% |
| 13 Feb | 67% | 29% | 5% | 1% | · |
| 14 Feb | 67% | 29% | 5% | 1% | 1% |
| 15 Feb | 68% | 28% | 5% | 1% | 1% |
| 16 Feb | 67% | 28% | 5% | 1% | 3% |
| 17 Feb | 67% | 27% | 5% | 1% | · |
| 18 Feb | 67% | 28% | 6% | 1% | 2% |
| 19 Feb | 66% | 31% | 4% | 3% | 2% |
| 20 Feb | 66% | 31% | 4% | 3% | · |
| 21 Feb | 69% | 29% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| 22 Feb | 69% | 27% | 4% | 3% | 2% |
| 23 Feb | 70% | 27% | 4% | 3% | 2% |
| 24 Feb | 71% | 26% | 4% | · | 2% |
| 25 Feb | 70% | 24% | 4% | 3% | 2% |
| 26 Feb | 69% | 26% | 4% | 2% | 2% |
| 27 Feb | 69% | 26% | 4% | 2% | 2% |
| 28 Feb | 70% | 27% | 5% | 2% | 2% |
| 1 Mar | 66% | 24% | 11% | 2% | · |
| 2 Mar | 67% | 23% | 10% | 3% | 2% |
| 3 Mar | 67% | 23% | 9% | 2% | 2% |
| 4 Mar | 68% | 23% | 9% | 2% | 2% |
| 5 Mar | 67% | 23% | 9% | 2% | 2% |
| 6 Mar | 67% | 22% | 12% | 2% | 2% |
| 7 Mar | 66% | 21% | 12% | 3% | 2% |
| 8 Mar | 64% | 21% | 8% | 3% | 3% |
| 9 Mar | 67% | 21% | 8% | 2% | 2% |
| 10 Mar | 68% | 25% | 7% | 2% | 1% |
| 11 Mar | 61% | 32% | 7% | 2% | 2% |
| 12 Mar | 68% | 24% | 9% | 2% | 2% |
| 13 Mar | 69% | 25% | 7% | 2% | 2% |
| 14 Mar | 69% | 26% | 5% | 3% | 1% |
A dot means no trade that day. A blank means Kalshi returned no daily record for that day.
Ceremony day · before the first award
The lowest price on offer (the ask), as the site's own server recorded it on 15 March 2026, before Kalshi closed the first market of the night at 7:34 pm ET. An ask, not a trade.
- Sentimental Value70% · 6:21 pm ET
- The Secret Agent28% · 6:21 pm ET
- It Was Just an Accident4% · 6:21 pm ET
- The Voice of Hind Rajab2% · 6:21 pm ET
- Sirāt2% · 2:01 pm ET
The Kalshi market
Event KXOSCARINTLFILM-26 listed 16 markets: one for each of the 5 nominees and 11 for contenders who were not nominated or for a tie (44,226 contracts traded). In all, 1.58M contracts traded.
Kalshi settled KXOSCARINTLFILM-26-SEN "yes" and every other market "no", on 16 March 2026 (UTC).
The 11 other markets
- Tie · KXOSCARINTLFILM-26-TIE25,957 contracts · closed 16 Mar
- No Other Choice · KXOSCARINTLFILM-26-NOO9,061 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Kokuho · KXOSCARINTLFILM-26-KOK2,570 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- All That’s Left of You · KXOSCARINTLFILM-26-ALL2,499 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- The President’s Cake · KXOSCARINTLFILM-26-PRE1,866 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Left-Handed Girl · KXOSCARINTLFILM-26-LEF1,272 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Palestine 36 · KXOSCARINTLFILM-26-PAL997 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Belén · KXOSCARINTLFILM-26-BEL1 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Homebound · KXOSCARINTLFILM-26-HOM1 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Late Shift · KXOSCARINTLFILM-26-LAT1 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Sound of Falling · KXOSCARINTLFILM-26-SOU1 contracts · closed 22 Jan
Sources: the Academy's results page (Internet Archive copy, 20 March 2026) · Kalshi's settled markets and daily prices · the site's own server record of ceremony day. Frozen on 30 September 2026.
A price is the last traded price on Kalshi, read as the market's implied chance: 77% means 77 cents for a contract that paid $1 if the nominee won. Market data, not advice.