Jessie Buckley has been building toward this moment for years. Supporting roles in The Lost Daughter and Women Talking established her with Academy voters. Now she leads Chloe Zhao's Hamnet, playing Anne Hathaway (Shakespeare's wife, not the actress), a mother grieving the loss of her young son.
At 64% implied probability, she's the clear frontrunner. Here's why the market favors her, and what could derail her path to gold.
Current Market Odds
| Actress | Film | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jessie Buckley | Hamnet | -180 | 64% |
| Saoirse Ronan | The Outrun | +400 | 20% |
| Nicole Kidman | Babygirl | +800 | 11% |
| Demi Moore | The Substance | +1500 | 6% |
The gap between Buckley and the field tells the story: when a performance, a film, and a director all align with Academy preferences, the odds reflect it.
Why Buckley Is the Frontrunner
The performance: In Hamnet, Buckley plays Anne Hathaway (Shakespeare's wife). She anchors an intimate family drama about the death of their son. The role requires her to carry emotional weight across the entire film.
The film: Hamnet won the TIFF People's Choice Award. Recent TIFF winners that also won Best Actress include Nomadland (Frances McDormand) and Room (Brie Larson). When the film has momentum, it often lifts the lead actress.
The director: Chloe Zhao directing adds credibility. Zhao got Frances McDormand her third Oscar. If Zhao's direction is praised, it reflects well on her lead.
The Competition
Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun) is the main challenger. She has four nominations and no wins. At 30, she's young enough that voters might think she has time. But the "overdue" argument gets stronger each year.
Nicole Kidman (Babygirl) brings star power and a provocative role. Kidman already has one Oscar. The Academy might prefer giving it to someone new.
Demi Moore (The Substance) has the comeback narrative. Body horror rarely wins Oscars, but her physical commitment is undeniable.
My Assessment
Buckley at 64% feels about right, maybe slightly low. She has the frontrunner film (TIFF winner), the respected director (Zhao), the "her time" narrative, and strong reviews.
The main risk is Ronan consolidating the "overdue" vote. But four nominations at 30 isn't the same urgency as, say, Glenn Close's seven nominations.
If you're looking to bet Best Actress, Buckley is the safest play. If you want value, Ronan at +400 offers upside if her film gains traction.
Wait for SAG nominations to see who makes the final five, then reassess.