Paul Thomas Anderson shot One Battle After Another in VistaVision, a widescreen format abandoned by Hollywood in the 1960s. He's always been that kind of filmmaker. The technical obsessive who spent years capturing Daniel Day-Lewis in There Will Be Blood, who built a massive period recreation for Phantom Thread, who insists on shooting on film when most directors have moved on.
Eight feature films. Eleven Oscar nominations. Zero wins. That might finally change. One Battle After Another sits at 60-70% implied probability to win Best Picture, with Anderson himself the frontrunner for Best Director.
But "overdue" narratives don't always pay off. Here's what the data actually says about Anderson's chances.
The Current Market Position
| Category | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Best Picture | -180 | 65% |
| Best Director (PTA) | -200 | 67% |
| Best Actor (DiCaprio) | +200 | 33% |
Notice DiCaprio's Best Actor odds trail the film's Best Picture odds. That's typical. Best Picture and Best Director often go together, while acting awards frequently split to other films.
Anderson's Oscar History
| Year | Film | Nominations | Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | Boogie Nights | 3 | 0 |
| 1999 | Magnolia | 3 | 0 |
| 2008 | There Will Be Blood | 8 | 2* |
| 2018 | Phantom Thread | 6 | 1* |
| 2022 | Licorice Pizza | 3 | 0 |
*Daniel Day-Lewis won Best Actor for There Will Be Blood. Phantom Thread won Costume Design. Anderson himself has never won.
The "Overdue" Director Pattern
How often do long-nominated directors finally win? Martin Scorsese went 0-6 before finally winning on his 7th nomination for The Departed. But Alfred Hitchcock got 5 nominations and never won. Stanley Kubrick went 0-4. Peter O'Toole was nominated 8 times and never won.
"Overdue" creates pressure, but it doesn't guarantee a win.
What Could Go Wrong
The DGA problem: A DGA loss has moved prices hard before. Here's what happened in 2025 when Brady Corbet lost the DGA: he dropped from 86.3% to 43% in 48 hours. A 43-point drop.
DGA has matched Oscar Best Director 88% of the time. If someone else wins the DGA, Anderson's path becomes much harder.
Where It Stands
The market has One Battle After Another at 65% before the guilds. The DGA result on February 7 is the next big piece of information.
The story isn't written yet. February will tell us a lot.