In 96 years of Oscar history, exactly one horror film has won Best Picture: The Silence of the Lambs in 1992. Ryan Coogler's Sinners is trying to be the second.
The numbers aren't in its favor. Horror films have received just seven Best Picture nominations across nearly a century. But Sinners has something most horror movies lack: a 97% Rotten Tomatoes score, Michael B. Jordan in dual roles, and a director the Academy already respects. Here's what it would take to pull off the upset.
Current Market Odds
| Platform | Sinners Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +1100 | 8% |
| Polymarket | 7% | 7% |
| Sportsbooks | +1400 | 6% |
The Horror-Oscar Problem
The Academy has historically dismissed horror. Here's every horror film nominated for Best Picture:
| Film | Year | Result |
|---|---|---|
| The Exorcist | 1974 | Lost |
| Jaws | 1976 | Lost |
| The Silence of the Lambs | 1992 | Won |
| The Sixth Sense | 2000 | Lost |
| Get Out | 2018 | Lost |
Seven nominations in 96 years. One win. Notice that even the acclaimed ones lost: The Exorcist, Jaws, Get Out. That's the genre bias Sinners is fighting against.
Why Sinners Could Break Through
The critical consensus is overwhelming. 97% on Rotten Tomatoes is exceptional. For comparison, "Get Out" had 98%, "The Silence of the Lambs" had 96%.
Ryan Coogler has Academy credibility. "Black Panther" was nominated for Best Picture in 2019. Coogler knows how to make films that the Academy respects.
Michael B. Jordan's dual performance. Playing twins gives Jordan range to show. Dual performances often get attention.
The Path to Victory
For "Sinners" to win Best Picture, the following would need to happen:
- PTA's film stumbles. Either loses DGA, PGA, or both.
- Sinners gets nominated. Not guaranteed for horror.
- Jordan gets Best Actor nom. Creates acting category support.
- Late momentum surge in final voting period.
- Preferential ballot benefit. As a universally liked film, it could be many voters' second choice.
That's a lot of things that need to go right. Hence the 6-8% odds.
My Assessment
"Sinners" at +1100 (8%) is priced correctly for a horror film in a strong year.
What I'd do: Pass on "Sinners" as a Best Picture bet. The genre bias is too strong, and the frontrunner is too established. If you want horror exposure, watch for Michael B. Jordan in Best Actor markets, where the path is clearer.
"Sinners" making history would be great for horror fans. The odds say it probably won't.