Chloe Zhao won Best Picture and Best Director for Nomadland in 2021. Now she's back with Hamnet, a grief-stricken portrait of Shakespeare's family after the death of his young son. The film won the Toronto International Film Festival People's Choice Award, the same honor that launched Nomadland to Oscar glory.
TIFF has produced Best Picture winners like Green Book and 12 Years a Slave. Zhao knows how to convert festival momentum into Oscar gold. But this year she's up against Paul Thomas Anderson's frontrunner. Here's what Hamnet needs to pull off the upset.
Current Market Position
| Platform | Hamnet Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +350 | 22% |
| Polymarket | 20% | 20% |
| Sportsbooks | +400 | 20% |
The market sees "Hamnet" as the clear second choice. About a 1-in-5 chance of winning Best Picture.
The TIFF People's Choice Track Record
| Year | TIFF Winner | Oscar Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Nomadland | Won |
| 2018 | Green Book | Won |
| 2017 | Three Billboards | Nominated, lost |
| 2016 | La La Land | Nominated, lost |
| 2015 | Room | Nominated, lost |
The pattern: TIFF winners almost always get nominated. They win about 30% of the time. Not a guarantee, but a meaningful signal. TIFF voters and Academy members tend to agree on intimate, performance-driven dramas.
Why Hamnet Could Win
Chloe Zhao knows the path. She won Best Picture and Best Director for "Nomadland" in 2021. She understands Oscar campaigns. She's done this before.
Shakespeare appeals to Academy sensibilities. Literary adaptations perform well at the Oscars. The Academy appreciates "serious" material.
Jessie Buckley coattails. Buckley's performance as Anne Hathaway (Shakespeare's wife, not the actress) has drawn comparisons to Frances McDormand in Nomadland. If Buckley wins Best Actress, it creates momentum for the film. Best Picture and Best Actress align about 40% of the time.
The Guild Path
For "Hamnet" to win, it needs to break the guild correlation. Here's what that would look like:
| Scenario | Hamnet's Probability |
|---|---|
| Wins PGA + DGA | 85%+ |
| Wins PGA, loses DGA | 60-65% |
| Loses both, wins SAG Ensemble | 25-30% |
| Loses all major guilds | <10% |
Where It Stands
“Hamnet” is at +350, about 20-22%. Its case rests on the TIFF track record and Zhao's ability to campaign.
What to watch: the PGA and the DGA. The scenarios above turn on them.