Warner Bros. won 11 Oscars at the 98th Academy Awards on March 15, 2026. They came from three films: "One Battle After Another" (6), "Sinners" (4) and "Weapons" (1). Here is what Kalshi's prediction market priced for each win before the ceremony.
The 11 wins
| Film | Category | Favorite on March 11 | Price on March 14 |
|---|---|---|---|
| One Battle After Another | Best Picture | Yes | 77% |
| One Battle After Another | Best Director | Yes | 92% |
| One Battle After Another | Best Supporting Actor | Yes | 77% |
| One Battle After Another | Best Adapted Screenplay | Yes | 96% |
| One Battle After Another | Best Film Editing | Yes | 85% |
| One Battle After Another | Best Casting | Not covered | 16% |
| Sinners | Best Actor | Yes | 54% |
| Sinners | Best Original Screenplay | Yes | 96% |
| Sinners | Best Cinematography | No | 21% |
| Sinners | Best Original Score | Yes | 94% |
| Weapons | Best Supporting Actress | Yes | 53% |
Favorite is the market leader in our March 11 snapshot, which does not cover Casting. Price is Kalshi's last traded price on March 14 (Eastern time) for the winning nominee. A price of 77% means the market implied a 77% chance. F1, an Apple film that Warner Bros. released in theaters, won Best Sound. It is not counted in the 11.
What the markets priced
Nine of the 11 wins were the market favorite on March 11. One was not: Cinematography, where our snapshot had "One Battle After Another" ahead of "Sinners". Casting is not in the snapshot.
Seven of the 11 wins were priced at 77% or higher on March 14. Four of those were at 92% or higher. The other four were priced at 54% or lower: Best Actor (Michael B. Jordan) at 54%, Best Supporting Actress (Amy Madigan) at 53%, Cinematography at 21% and Casting at 16%.
On March 14, Jordan and Madigan led their categories. Cinematography and Casting did not. In each of those two, the favorite was the other Warner Bros. film, priced at 78%: "One Battle After Another" in Cinematography and "Sinners" in Casting.
The 19 categories we track
Our snapshot named a market favorite in each of the 19 categories the site tracks. Kalshi's leader on March 14 was the same nominee in all 19. That nominee won 17 of the 19, or 89%. The two misses were Cinematography and Documentary Feature, where "The Perfect Neighbor" led and "Mr. Nobody against Putin" won.
Sources: the Academy's results · Kalshi's settled markets and daily prices · our March 11 snapshot.