2026 Oscar Predictions: What the Betting Markets Say

Last Updated: December 2025

Every year, film critics make predictions. Every year, some of them are wildly wrong. Roger Ebert picked Crash over Brokeback Mountain. The trades called La La Land a lock. Conventional wisdom said 1917 would sweep.

Here's what people with money on the line actually think will win at the 98th Academy Awards on March 15, 2026. These odds come from prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, where real bettors put real money behind their picks. When thousands of people have skin in the game, the resulting prices tend to be more accurate than any individual expert.

Best Picture

The race has a clear frontrunner, but the guilds haven't voted yet.

The wide range in odds (58-75%) reflects pre-guild uncertainty. Once the DGA and PGA announce their winners in February, expect the frontrunner's odds to either consolidate above 80% or crash below 50%.

Best Director

DGA predicts this category 88% of the time. Wait for February 7.

Best Actor

SAG correlation for Best Actor is strong: 6 of the last 7 SAG winners won the Oscar.

Best Actress

This is the most locked race of the major categories. Jessie Buckley sits at ~78% implied probability for her performance in Hamnet.

Best Supporting Actress

This is Ariana Grande's race to lose. Musical performance wins in Supporting Actress have a strong track record: Jennifer Hudson, Mo'Nique, Ariana DeBose. The Academy rewards singers who can act.

Key Dates That Will Move Markets