Toy Story 5
Best Adapted Screenplay contender
To win Best Adapted Screenplay
Number 10 of 15 by average priceKalshi5%Thin market: nobody bidding or nobody selling, a wide gap between buy and sell offers, or little trading, so a small amount of money can move this price.Polymarket0.6%Thin market: nobody bidding or nobody selling, a wide gap between buy and sell offers, or little trading, so a small amount of money can move this price.
To be nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay
Number 12 of 15 by Kalshi pricePrice history
Market-implied chance to win, the average of Kalshi and Polymarket at the end of each day.Prices at the end of each day, New York time. A day without a new price keeps the day before’s. On a day a Kalshi market ends thin (nobody bidding, or more than 10¢ between buy and sell offers), its close is the last traded price.Days before 2 October 2026 come from each platform’s published price history; later days from the prices this site records.Show the numbers
| Day | Average |
|---|---|
| 11 Oct 2026 | 3% |
| 4 Oct 2026 | 3% |
| 27 Sep 2026 | 3% |
| 20 Sep 2026 | 3% |
| 13 Sep 2026 | 3% |
| 6 Sep 2026 | 3% |
| 30 Aug 2026 | 4% |
| 23 Aug 2026 | 4% |
| 16 Aug 2026 | 4% |
| 9 Aug 2026 | 7% |
Also in the running
Podcast buzz
Named in 4 episodes of awards podcasts in the last 30 days, 1 in the last 7
Circuit Gays · 5 Oct
Season Kickoff: Fall Festivals & The Early Oscars Draft (opens in a new tab)
Academy Watch · 3 Oct
The Town · 24 Sep
Jeffrey Katzenberg on Why Hollywood Must Embrace AI(audio) (opens in a new tab)
The Town · 15 Sep
How to Run a Specialty Studio in 2026, with Searchlight President(audio) (opens in a new tab)
The Big Picture · 11 Sep
The Town · 4 Sep
The 2026 Summer Box Office Winners, Losers, and Head-Scratchers(audio) (opens in a new tab)
The Rolling Tape · 26 Aug
The Awards Tape: 2027 Oscar Contenders Draft Final Rosters(audio) (opens in a new tab)
Oscars Outsider · 25 Aug
The Odyssey's Secret Weakness? And Who Actually Wins the Writing Oscars (opens in a new tab)
From what is said on 28 film and awards podcasts (an episode’s title and show notes until it is transcribed), updated daily (last checked 6 Oct). A mention means the film or person is named, whatever the category or context. It is not a prediction or a recommendation.
The 28 podcasts
The Next Best Picture Podcast · Frontrunners and Challengers · The Awards Watch Podcast · Awards Circuit · Prestige Junkie · Little Gold Men · The Big Picture · Screen Talk · The Awardist · Awards Radar: The Podcast · Awards Central Podcast · Oscars Outsider · Awards Chatter · The Envelope · Doc Talk · Kermode & Mayo’s Take · The Film Comment Podcast · Filmspotting · Team Deakins · Art of the Cut · Soundtracking with Edith Bowman · Scriptnotes · Mike, Mike, and Oscar · Lights Camera What’s The Action? · The Rolling Tape · Circuit Gays · Academy Watch · The Town
All 15 contenders for Best Adapted Screenplay
Market data, not advice.Prices are what traders paid on Kalshi and Polymarket, shown per platform or as their average; they are not predictions or recommendations.
