The Black Ball
Best International Feature contenderListed on Kalshi as La Bola Negra.Each country's official entry was due on 30 September 2026. Some films listed by the markets may not be their country's entry, and some entries have no market yet.
To win Best International Feature
Number 1 of 18 by average priceKalshi81%Polymarket76%
To be nominated for Best International Feature
Number 1 of 18 by Kalshi pricePrice history
Market-implied chance to win, the average of Kalshi and Polymarket at the end of each day.Prices at the end of each day, New York time. A day without a new price keeps the day before’s. On a day a Kalshi market ends thin (nobody bidding, or more than 10¢ between buy and sell offers), its close is the last traded price.Numbered pins mark festival and award results announced that day.Days before 2 October 2026 come from each platform’s published price history; later days from the prices this site records.Show the numbers
| Day | Average |
|---|---|
| 11 Oct 2026 | 78% |
| 4 Oct 2026 | 79% |
| 27 Sep 2026 | 78% |
| 20 Sep 2026 | 78% |
| 13 Sep 2026 | 68% |
| 6 Sep 2026 | 72% |
| 30 Aug 2026 | 68% |
| 23 Aug 2026 | 64% |
| 16 Aug 2026 | 43% |
| 9 Aug 2026 | 74% |
Also in the running
Podcast buzz
Named in 22 episodes of awards podcasts in the last 30 days, 4 in the last 7
The Next Best Picture Podcast · 5 Oct
Circuit Gays · 5 Oct
Season Kickoff: Fall Festivals & The Early Oscars Draft (opens in a new tab)
The Town · 5 Oct
The Next Best Picture Podcast · 4 Oct
Academy Watch · 3 Oct
Mike, Mike, and Oscar · 2 Oct
Digger Oscars Profile - This Could've Been an Email 10/3/26 (opens in a new tab)
Screen Talk · 2 Oct
The Big Picture · 2 Oct
From what is said on 28 film and awards podcasts (an episode’s title and show notes until it is transcribed), updated daily (last checked 6 Oct). A mention means the film or person is named, whatever the category or context. It is not a prediction or a recommendation.
The 28 podcasts
The Next Best Picture Podcast · Frontrunners and Challengers · The Awards Watch Podcast · Awards Circuit · Prestige Junkie · Little Gold Men · The Big Picture · Screen Talk · The Awardist · Awards Radar: The Podcast · Awards Central Podcast · Oscars Outsider · Awards Chatter · The Envelope · Doc Talk · Kermode & Mayo’s Take · The Film Comment Podcast · Filmspotting · Team Deakins · Art of the Cut · Soundtracking with Edith Bowman · Scriptnotes · Mike, Mike, and Oscar · Lights Camera What’s The Action? · The Rolling Tape · Circuit Gays · Academy Watch · The Town
All 18 contenders for Best International Feature
Market data, not advice.Prices are what traders paid on Kalshi and Polymarket, shown per platform or as their average; they are not predictions or recommendations.
