Fatherland
Best International Feature contenderListed on Kalshi as 1949 / Fatherland.Each country's official entry was due on 30 September 2026. Some films listed by the markets may not be their country's entry, and some entries have no market yet.
To win Best International Feature
Number 7 of 18 by average priceKalshi6%Thin market: nobody bidding or nobody selling, a wide gap between buy and sell offers, or little trading, so a small amount of money can move this price.Polymarket4%
To be nominated for Best International Feature
Number 5 of 18 by Kalshi pricePrice history
Market-implied chance to win, the average of Kalshi and Polymarket at the end of each day.Prices at the end of each day, New York time. A day without a new price keeps the day before’s. On a day a Kalshi market ends thin (nobody bidding, or more than 10¢ between buy and sell offers), its close is the last traded price.Days before 2 October 2026 come from each platform’s published price history; later days from the prices this site records.Show the numbers
| Day | Average |
|---|---|
| 11 Oct 2026 | 5% |
| 4 Oct 2026 | 4% |
| 27 Sep 2026 | 6% |
| 20 Sep 2026 | 6% |
| 13 Sep 2026 | 8% |
| 6 Sep 2026 | under 1% |
| 30 Aug 2026 | under 1% |
| 23 Aug 2026 | 1% |
| 16 Aug 2026 | 44% |
| 9 Aug 2026 | 13% |
Also in the running
Podcast buzz
Named in 3 episodes of awards podcasts in the last 30 days
Academy Watch · 3 Oct
Screen Talk · 2 Oct
The Big Picture · 22 Sep
The Big Picture · 8 Sep
The Rolling Tape · 26 Aug
The Awards Tape: 2027 Oscar Contenders Draft Final Rosters(audio) (opens in a new tab)
Oscars Outsider · 18 Aug
The consensus is.... there is no consensus? (opens in a new tab)
Oscars Outsider · 5 Aug
Oscars Outsider · 14 Jul
The Digger Trailer Is a Disaster (And Our Full Best Director Predictions) (opens in a new tab)
From what is said on 28 film and awards podcasts (an episode’s title and show notes until it is transcribed), updated daily (last checked 6 Oct). A mention means the film or person is named, whatever the category or context. It is not a prediction or a recommendation.
The 28 podcasts
The Next Best Picture Podcast · Frontrunners and Challengers · The Awards Watch Podcast · Awards Circuit · Prestige Junkie · Little Gold Men · The Big Picture · Screen Talk · The Awardist · Awards Radar: The Podcast · Awards Central Podcast · Oscars Outsider · Awards Chatter · The Envelope · Doc Talk · Kermode & Mayo’s Take · The Film Comment Podcast · Filmspotting · Team Deakins · Art of the Cut · Soundtracking with Edith Bowman · Scriptnotes · Mike, Mike, and Oscar · Lights Camera What’s The Action? · The Rolling Tape · Circuit Gays · Academy Watch · The Town
All 18 contenders for Best International Feature
Market data, not advice.Prices are what traders paid on Kalshi and Polymarket, shown per platform or as their average; they are not predictions or recommendations.
