Fatherland
Best Picture contenderListed on Kalshi as 1949 / Fatherland.
To win Best Picture
Number 38 of 54 by average priceKalshi1%Polymarketunder 1%
To be nominated for Best Picture
Number 23 of 54 by average priceKalshi11%Polymarket8%Thin market: nobody bidding or nobody selling, a wide gap between buy and sell offers, or little trading, so a small amount of money can move this price.
Price history
Market-implied chance to win, the average of Kalshi and Polymarket at the end of each day.Prices at the end of each day, New York time. A day without a new price keeps the day before’s. On a day a Kalshi market ends thin (nobody bidding, or more than 10¢ between buy and sell offers), its close is the last traded price.Days before 2 October 2026 come from each platform’s published price history; later days from the prices this site records.Show the numbers
| Day | Average |
|---|---|
| 4 Oct 2026 | 0.6% |
| 27 Sep 2026 | 0.5% |
| 20 Sep 2026 | 0.6% |
| 13 Sep 2026 | 0.6% |
| 6 Sep 2026 | 0.6% |
| 30 Aug 2026 | 0.6% |
| 23 Aug 2026 | 0.6% |
| 16 Aug 2026 | 0.6% |
| 9 Aug 2026 | 0.8% |
| 2 Aug 2026 | 2% |
| 26 Jul 2026 | 1% |
| 19 Jul 2026 | 1% |
| 12 Jul 2026 | 1% |
| 5 Jul 2026 | 1% |
| 28 Jun 2026 | 1% |
| 21 Jun 2026 | 1% |
| 14 Jun 2026 | 1% |
| 7 Jun 2026 | 1% |
| 31 May 2026 | 1% |
| 24 May 2026 | 1% |
Also in the running
Podcast buzz
Named in 3 episodes of awards podcasts in the last 30 days
Academy Watch · 3 Oct
Screen Talk · 2 Oct
The Big Picture · 22 Sep
The Big Picture · 8 Sep
The Rolling Tape · 26 Aug
The Awards Tape: 2027 Oscar Contenders Draft Final Rosters(audio) (opens in a new tab)
Oscars Outsider · 18 Aug
The consensus is.... there is no consensus? (opens in a new tab)
Oscars Outsider · 5 Aug
Oscars Outsider · 14 Jul
The Digger Trailer Is a Disaster (And Our Full Best Director Predictions) (opens in a new tab)
From what is said on 28 film and awards podcasts (an episode’s title and show notes until it is transcribed), updated daily (last checked 6 Oct). A mention means the film or person is named, whatever the category or context. It is not a prediction or a recommendation.
The 28 podcasts
The Next Best Picture Podcast · Frontrunners and Challengers · The Awards Watch Podcast · Awards Circuit · Prestige Junkie · Little Gold Men · The Big Picture · Screen Talk · The Awardist · Awards Radar: The Podcast · Awards Central Podcast · Oscars Outsider · Awards Chatter · The Envelope · Doc Talk · Kermode & Mayo’s Take · The Film Comment Podcast · Filmspotting · Team Deakins · Art of the Cut · Soundtracking with Edith Bowman · Scriptnotes · Mike, Mike, and Oscar · Lights Camera What’s The Action? · The Rolling Tape · Circuit Gays · Academy Watch · The Town
All 54 contenders for Best Picture
Market data, not advice.Prices are what traders paid on Kalshi and Polymarket, shown per platform or as their average; they are not predictions or recommendations.
